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Sunday, July 1, 2012

There is no way out for Euro

Poor Markel and Germans. At the last minute of the Eurozone summit meeting, the poor Markel finally yielded to Italy and Spain to agree to use the EU bailout funds to save their severely indebted banks by allowing them to borrow more money to avoid their immediate bankruptcy. Basically the poor Germans are going to use their credit to allow for endless money printing to save the Euro! So Euro has been saved for now again. But believe me, the worse crises will come back again to hit them and the world with shorter and shorter intervals. There is no way out for Euro with such kind of mentality that no one wants to fundamentally solve the problem, i.e. to reduce their debts. Rather, what they are doing is simply adding more and more debts to their already unmanageable debt load. They can still kick the can down the road, but eventually the reality will kick in and the Euro will collaspe badly! But as you know, I'm actually betting the in the near term, Euro may bounce back a bit. If it ever jumps back over $1.30 or higher, I will seriously consider to add more short positions against Euro. That will be another bunches of free money for you to pick up.

The market short-term direction seems to go as I predicted. Friday S&P jumped back to over 1350. I'm afraid it will hit its strong resistance around 1370-90 soon. I have used leveraged ETFs to bet for this short-term uptrend in the past few weeks and I'm taking some quick profits off the table but still keep some in case it will continue to go a bit higher. More importantly I'm starting to add leveraged ETFs (SDS) to bet for a more severe plunge for the market. As I said, I think likely the market will go down significantly first before advancing more upside. Similarly I'm also betting for a fight back for oil and I'm using the leveraged ETF (UCO) to bet for this short term bouncing. Oil jumped 8% on Friday and I'm doing fine with UCO. I probably will get out soon as I think more downside for oil is likely to come before all this is over.

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