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Tuesday, February 28, 2012

SWC is on tear

I talked about putting some money on platinum early Nov 2011 and specifically also mentioned one way of doing so by buying SWC, a mining company for platinum. In the past 3 months, while platinum has increased by about 10%, SWC has advanced by 50%. If you did so, you should feel very happy with the capital gain in just 3 months or so. But I would take some money off the table or better using options to hedge against a possible correction. 

I have said many times by now and am still convinced that the market is due for a correction, potentially significantly, e.g. over 5% within a short period of time. This can happen any day for now. Investors are just too much complacent and bullish, which will not bode well with the short term direction of the general market. I know I have been wrong for many weeks but I'd rather be wrong than greedy and caught up with a sudden plummeting of stocks. I do have quite a few stocks on my watch list but will only get to them if the correction comes. For the whole year, actually I think it is quite possible that the overall stock market will likely go much higher. After all, this is an election year and people will generally be made feel good about the economy. So I'm also ready to make my money work when the time comes.

In addition to the general market, I'm also thinking that oil is due for a significant drop in the next few weeks. Currently a significant component of the oil price is from the headline risk, more specifically about the potential conflict or even war with Iran. If this fear fades away, oil will plummet.

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