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Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Short term overbought

While I'm feeling very good to have a perfect bullish call, the market is actually very overbought at the moment. If you haven't got in and are thinking to catch it up by buying stocks now, think twice and be cautious. The market is very much subject to severe pull back in the near term. Technically speaking, S&P is still trading within a band between 1100 and 1220. Today it is 1207, at its range top. In the past few months, S&P is bouncing back and forth within this range. I think there is a good chance that it may plummet sharply in the next few days. It may drop all the way down towards 1100 level and then strongly bounce back to try to breach its upper band. If successful, it will be on its way to really set up a new upper trend. Overall I feel the next 2-3 months towards the year end will be bullish for the stock market but in the very short term, be prepared for a sharp decline.

Stay tuned. If the market plays out more or less consistent with what I'm expecting, I will recommend a new ETF to catch up the bullish trend.

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