Obviously I was on the wrong side betting. However, I'm not sure this is the end of the game, at least from my perspective. While more experts voted positively for the drug, Contrave, the discussions and comments even from those voted for it were actually quite negative. I believed 2 or 3 experts used the word "technically meeting the criteria" when discussing about the results and were questioning about the clinical significance. Safety including cardiovascular effect as well as seizure was definitely a huge concern.
So what I'd do? I would simply take the loss and walk away if I were not aware of the discussions. However, given the information as well as the fact that the final decision is in the hands of the FDA, I still doubt highly that the FDA will give a straightforward approval. More likely it may be either a very restrictive indication which will mean much less commercial value for the company or an approvable letter requesting more data or even studies before final approval. If that happens, it will be a huge blow to the stock price, which is currently priced in a full approval outright. If the hype for the stock is maintained in the next few weeks till end of Jan when the FDA decision is due, I may bet again for a negative decision from the FDA.
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