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Thursday, March 14, 2024

Warning signs everywhere

In the past 3 decades, we have only seen this high momentum crowding magnitude three times. Two of them preceded two major financial crises with recessions followed, one in the dot.com era and the other in the housing crash time. What will happen this time? No one knows for sure but something has to give.

Of course this is not the exact timing indicator and the warning for the next major crisis will likely take time to develop. If you look at the previous two times, both had developed a double top before the recession hit. My take is that we may see first a sizable correction with a furious rally afterwards before we run into a recession/crisis. 

 

 

 

 If you ever believe the cover effect as a contrary indicator, here is one of them. Barron's bull call on the cover in the last weekend's edition (Mar 9-10). Only time will tell if it means something but timing-wise, this bullishness does correspond to the extreme euphoria we are seeing right now.




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