Auto flying is coming....

Xwing may be the first to get FAA approval…

We've been monitoring the development of autonomous flight technology recently… but only with regards to electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) crafts. These are smaller aircraft that could serve as air taxis for short flights or for shuttling cargo from place to place… but they aren't suitable for longer-haul commercial travel.

Which is why I'm excited about a startup company that is bringing this technology to traditional airplanes as opposed to eVTOLs. The company is called Xwing.

I don't think many people know this, but 95-98% of all commercial flights are already autonomous. The pilot is involved with parts of the takeoff and landing… but that's about it. Commercial jets fly themselves the rest of the time. The pilots are there to monitor the autonomous system in the event that an adjustment needs to be made.

The reason for this is simple. Safety.

It's a well-known statistic that 70-80% of all aviation accidents result from human error. So the more we can automate the flights, the better.

But to date, no place has been certified to automate the takeoffs and landings. Until now. Check this out:

Here we can see Xwing's fully autonomous aircraft in action. This is a modified Cessna 208B Caravan. I've flown on a few of these before as I'm sure a few readers have as well. They're almost always used for shorter, regional flights into small airports or even just single runways in remote locations.

What's exciting here is that this plane could transport both people and cargo autonomously – without a pilot.

Xwing's go-to market strategy will start with autonomous cargo flights. This makes sense.

The company has already contracted with UPS to handle some deliveries autonomously. So far, those flights have a safety pilot in the seat, but otherwise the planes are already flying themselves. The cargo market is a great place to start. There will be less safety requirements than if Xwing was trying to get certified for passenger flights. This is a great way to further develop and improve the technology, build a track record of successful flights, and make the case for future passenger certification.

This is similar to what we're seeing in the trucking industry. Autonomous driving companies are starting with cargo deliveries.

Also like the trucking industry, Xwing's plan is to have pilots stationed in control rooms where they can oversee multiple planes at one time. Here's what that looks like:

Source: Xwing

The idea here is that the pilot can monitor several flights in parallel. And if something appears to go wrong, they can take control of the aircraft remotely to prevent a disaster from occurring.

Right now, Xwing is working to get certification from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to support fully autonomous cargo flights. If approved, it will be a first for the industry. And it will pave the way for fully autonomous passenger flights to become a reality.

What's so exciting about this is that autonomous flights will be significantly cheaper. Having a single pilot monitor multiple flights is obviously more cost-effective than having one or two pilots dedicated to each individual flight as we have today.

And removing the pilots reduces the weight on each flight. That will improve fuel efficiency and/or increase the amount of cargo that can be transported. This improved efficiency may be small on a per flight basis, but the small gains will be material when extrapolated across an entire fleet over time.

The other interesting dynamic is that this technology could revolutionize small, regional travel. At the moment, most options are limited to chartering a plane to travel from one small airport to another where there is no commercial service.

Commercial airlines don't want routes which are expensive to maintain and have smaller passenger volumes. But this technology could open up an entirely new market. The lower operational costs could be the catalyst for new aviation businesses that cater to these kinds of routes. It could make regional flights both affordable and convenient to an entirely new market.

I'm excited to see Xwing get FAA certifications for cargo, and hopefully passenger certification follows within a couple years after that. With a little luck, we might be able to enjoy some new regional transportation options between small airports by 2025/2026.

Jeff Brown