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Saturday, May 14, 2022

A poor child's tears may have suggested a bottom of this plunge....

The historically worst start of the year has driven most people into a deeply depressing hole. Here's a funny 77-second video about the carnage out there: Saving Capital Markets (warning: very graphic), vividly reflecting the current market status. But we may start to see a glimpse of the light from the bottom of the sinking hole. 

Below is one anecdotal observation from a poor child's psycho changes from his trading adventure (forwarded by a friend):  

On January 27 last year, only one day after the peak of the meme stock bubble (which I called the top of nearly to the hour), my friend texted me a crazy yet completely representative story about his young son, which I described in my e-mail the next day:

...for months [my] friend has been resisting his 11-year-old's pleas to lend him $50,000 to speculate on stocks – but he finally broke down and texted me last night:

At his request and from his account, I will purchase AMC (AMC) and GameStop (GME) for him tomorrow. He is literally bawling, PLEADING, and yelling at me:

TikTok tells me which stocks to buy. Every time you tell me something is risky, you are wrong. This time they are worth it and will go up! I want to buy more, I want to buy on margin. They will loan me the money. Please, please BUY ME MORE AMC ON MARGIN – I know it will go up!

The poor kid has, of course, been incinerated, as AMC and GME are down 44% and 74%, respectively, since then.

You won't be surprised to hear that my friend texted me this last night about his now-12-year-old son:

He just asked me: "What should I do now? Sell all my tech stocks and just buy index funds?"

I don't want to put too much weight on one kid's behavior, but just as his tears marked the top of the bubble a year ago, his capitulation may well mark the bottom today...

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