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Wednesday, February 18, 2015
Is Alibaba a good buy now?
I was asked for my opinion on Alibaba (BABA) and I said I was bullish for
BABA. In general I tend not to touch individual Chinese stocks due to a simple
reason: I don’t feel comfortable to simply go with the information publicly
available as I don’t know whether it is reliable or not. Also, as with many
things in China, a lot of things can be manipulated or suddenly changed by the
government without any prior warning. But there are some exceptions obviously.
BABA is one of them. In my mind, Alibaba is the only Chinese company at the
moment that is of world scale and also has its unique business model not
directly copied from other companies. Think about it, when people talk about
the Chinese business right now, which one they come up first? Alibaba! BABA is
the Chinese Amazon but with one huge difference: BABA is already very
profitable since its IPO but Amazon is still a big money loser after so many
years of being publicly traded. I think, simply because of this reason,
Alibaba will be strongly supported by the Chinese government one way or the
other, although they may not publicly admit that. It is currently almost like
a business window for China that the Chinese government will not close it
lightly, even not just ajar. On top of that, not to mention how many big guys
from the top in China have been deeply involved with significant stakes
associated with it. I guess it is a public secret that Alibaba is like a money
machine for many “noble” families in China that they cannot afford to lose. All
in all, there is no way Baba will go down in any significant way. Not so soon
any way. Of course BABA is experiencing a lot of very significant challenges at
the moment both at home and in the US, but this is just the pain every
successful company must go through. No difference for BABA. I obviously don’t
know how long this pain will last for it and whether or not BABA has reached
its bottom at the moment. I simply don’t know. But I think the current snafu
for BABA is likely a great investment opportunity that I don’t want to miss and
I want to get in now with the understanding that BABA may go down further. So
the best strategy for me is a staggering approach by using dollar averaging: I
buy portion of the position for BABA so that I will at least have something in
it. If it starts to run away from here, I won’t be totally regretted. If it
goes down further, I will buy more to slowly establish my full position. If you
are savvy with options, then you will have a better choice: buy long-term in
the money LEAP calls for BABA, which will substantially reduce your risk. You
may even use naked put options to further reduce your cost and if your timing
is good, this combination may allow you to set up a free purchase of BABA or
even you get paid first to buy BABA. This is a rather sophisticated technique
not for amateur option players. So if you don’t understand what I’m talking
about, simply go with buying BABA stock shares or call options. Just be
prepared that this may be a volatile investment and you have to be willing to
see your position value go up and down several times before it’s finally back
to the bull run trajectory. Remember one thing: Bulls usually have to climb up
the wall of worry. I think BABA is in this situation at the moment!
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