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Tuesday, February 3, 2015
Don't call a bottom of oil too soon
The recent oil move must have caught a lot of eyes and the obvious
question is if oil has reached the bottom and is ready to move up now. The
short answer for me is NO. The market is a weird animal and it won't let
you feel good easily. When everyone is looking for a bottom, the bottom
is likely not in yet. That is how the market works. The past few days
strong bouncing up in oil has got many people euphoric, claiming the
bottom is in. My bet is: not so soon. This is still within the normal
range of an oversold bounce. I'm pretty sure it will come down again.
Just as a patient with sepsis, you should not expect him to recover
quickly within days. It has to take some days up and down before truly
recovering. Same for oil. The damage already done is too severe too
deep. It needs time to recover. Right now it may be in the stage calling
sandpapering. I don't expect it will simply explode high from here. If
you try to jump in for a quick profit, look out below! For those who
expected to see this oversold bounce and went in with some speculative
trading, it is the time to get out to lock in the profit. Otherwise, you
may see your gain evaporate quickly. I did have closed my trading
positions with some quick profits.
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