3 months ago, I suggested that a bull run for the Chinese market might be just starting and you should consider to buy if you
were bold enough. The safest way to bet the Chinese stocks would be via FXI,
the ETF for the 25 biggest companies in China. As you can see below, Both the Shanghai stock index (SSEC) and FXI have
gone almost straight-line up in the past few weeks. This is way too fast too
soon. Just like any long distance runners, they cannot keep running without
rest and from time to time, they may even stop to accumulate energy. As can be expected,
the Chinese stock market needs to take a rest and come down a bit before
regaining enough energy to move further up. Same for FXI. This is exactly what is happening now.
Technically speaking, the SSEC was actually just hitting its strong resistance line around 2260. It is usually too much to ask for the initial try to break through a strong resistance level. The most logic area for it to rest is its 50 day moving
average (DMA, the blue line). Usually for a stock with an uptrend, it will not go straight up
but chopping around its increasing 50-DMA. I bet FXI will follow the same path,
coming back toward its 50-DMA around $39.50 or when SSEC declines to 2135. When it tests this level, you should
really consider to buy if you also want to ride this bull run. While no
guarantee, I think this is likely the start of a multi-year bull market. If
history is any guide, I won’t be surprised to see a gain in the range of
100-500% in the next few years.
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