I'm not interested in politics at all but like or not, our life will be impacted by political decisions directly or indirectly. The current oil market is an example. Crude oil is near &110 these days. It is way too high if considering fundamentals. So why can it be so much inflated? Well, Syria is the major reason for people to become hype for oil. Yes, if Syria is going to get military attacks, for sure oil will be kept high for some time. But the thing is, when a crisis is coming, the price for the relevant goods is usually going up and factored in prior to the moment when the crisis actually happens. Quite often, when the crisis really occurs, the inflated price will soon come down, especially if the price is not supported by the fundamentals. I think this will likely turn out to be the situation for oil. As long as the expectation that Syria will be attacked is out there, the oil price will continue to be high and may even go further higher. However, when the attack to Syria finally breaks out, I bet the oil price will soon plunge.
If you are interested to play with the crude oil, here is what I will suggest: buy the bullish ETF for oil for now such as the leveraged ETF, UCO. But as soon as Syria gets attacked, sell UCO immediately and buy SCO, a bearish leveraged EFT for crude oil. Of course, this is only a short term speculation. But in the longer term, I think the crude oil will go down substantially.
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