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Sunday, August 11, 2013

An indirect play on EU rebound

Believe or not, there are signs that Europe may be turning a corner after years of economic and financial turmoil:
- German business index was promising
- the key Euribor bank-to-bank lending rate was solid
- unemployment started to falls in Spain
- positive EU GDP last quarter for the first time in years

Given the depressing economy status for so many years, the stock prices have plunged substantially in EU and they are actually attractive in terms of value. The upcoming winding-down of QE bond purchasing by the US Fed may create another unexpected boost for the EU stocks: the EU central bank may start its own QE in order to prevent the negative impact form the Fed action. Taking all this factors together, now appears to be a good time to buy the EU stocks.

You may directly invest in the EU stocks via EU focused ETF. But I think a better way is to play this indirectly, i.e. via the stock of a US company that has substantial business in the EU and makes big money in the EU market. I think  TAL International Group (TAL) qualifies for this.  TAL is a leading company in leasing container storage for global transportation. It controls about 13% of the global market share in its sector. The majority of its business is from Europe (44%) and Asia (43%) with the United States accounting for the remainder of sales. With the EU expected to break out of recession in the second part of this year, global shipping demand will greatly increases. This will boost TAL's bottom line.

Even better, you can enjoy a hefty 6.2% dividend yield with TAL. Since its IPO in 2005, it has increased its dividend by an annualized 19% for the straight 7 years. Even the global financial crisis in 2008 did not stop it. I think you can count it to continue to increase its dividend for years to come.

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