Restoration of the American Dream

Restoration of the American Dream
By Trish Regan

My grandfather only finished the 7th grade. He worked most of his life as the night watchman at the City Yard in Portsmouth, New Hampshire... a former Navy shipping town on the southern coast of the state.

One hundred hours a week... at 50 cents an hour. That equated to a weekly paycheck of $50... And, being a typical Irishman, he had eight little mouths at home to feed.

Those eight little kids knew what it was like to be really poor. They went without shoes in the summer and wore donated heavy coats in the winter... But their father worked hard and always told them they could be anything they wanted to be.

And, you know what? They believed him.

I thought about my grandfather as I watched the Republican National Convention this week. Republicans are seeking to remind Americans of the opportunities that make our country so unique.

Yet, reading the liberal media's headlines in real time... I was struck by the venom.

"GOP pushes falsehoods and fear at convention," says the New York Times. Meanwhile, the Washington Post ran breaking headlines that read: "Republicans abandon promises of an optimistic convention and try to recast accusations of racism."

Recast? Is that because the GOP dared to have an Indian American, former governor of South Carolina Nikki Haley, speak? She addressed the issue head-on... "In much of the Dem party, it's now fashionable to say that America is racist. That is a lie."

Meanwhile, Senator Tim Scott spoke of his own family's origins... "Our family went from cotton to Congress in one lifetime. And that's why I believe the next American century can be better than the last."

I think we can all agree... Every American must be afforded the opportunity to access the American Dream...

However, the Left, through unfortunate policy choices, has increased the economic challenges in poor, urban communities.

I've reported on New York City schools where high schoolers cannot read or write English... yet no one cares. They simply pass them through the system. So why not offer vouchers and charter schools?

Many parts of urban America could be infused with investment via low-tax opportunity zones... And yet, the Left resists.

There are serious structural socioeconomic problems in America... So why is the Left trying to take the same socialist-style policies they use to run America's biggest cities and employ them on a national scale?

Republicans are being criticized because they dare to refute the Left's narrative that America is racist and President Trump is evil.

I think we can all agree there are challenges in America today. However, those challenges are a result of lousy economic policies that made it nearly impossible for many minorities to break the cycle of poverty.

We can do better. We must do better...

But will Joe Biden accomplish that?

Not according to Donald Trump Jr., who had one of the most tweeted quotes of the night...

Joe Biden is basically the Loch Ness monster of the swamp... For the past half century, he's been lurking around in there. Sticks his head up every now and then to run for president and then doesn't do much in between.

He argued that Biden's economic ideas were designed to crush the middle-class worker... but that his father's policies, "have been like rocket fuel to the economy and especially to the middle class. Biden has promised to take that money back out of your pocket and keep it in the swamp."

Social media erupted after his quip about "Beijing Biden"... But bottom line, he hit on the policy issues that matter for the middle class, citing Biden's support of NAFTA, his support for TPP... and even noted that, "Beijing Biden is so weak on China that the intelligence community recently assessed that they prefer Biden. They know he'll weaken us economically and on a world stage."

It is the middle class that has been robbed of opportunity in recent decades.

I think of it like this... the Left – and the Right – delivered us an hourglass economy... complete with plenty on top, plenty on bottom, and very little in between. The middle class, the ones doing everything right... playing by the rules... working, saving, paying their mortgage, trying to save for their kids' education and their retirement... THEY are the ones that lose in a bureaucratic, top-heavy, government-run, tax-to-death economy.

If you're on the bottom, you get handouts and free government money for college... But the middle-class family scraping by is told they earn too much for financial aid. Somehow, they're supposed to sell their home to send their kids to school... just so their kids can get indoctrinated by this groupthink?

America is nothing without a strong middle class... and freedom.

Army veteran and American Consequences contributor Sean Parnell, who is running to unseat Democrat incumbent U.S. Representative Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania, highlighted that very issue saying, "My fellow Americans, I promise you this: in our tent you are free. Free to speak the truth, choose your journey, define your life."

Imagine that... a world that preaches tolerance.

As the president's son said, "In the past, both parties believed in the goodness of America. We agreed on where we wanted to go... We just disagreed on how to get there. This time the other party is attacking the very principles upon which our nation was founded. Freedom of thought, freedom of speech."

Meanwhile, my former colleague Kimberly Guilfoyle distilled it this way, "This election is a battle for the soul of America. Your choice is clear. Do you support the cancel culture, the cosmopolitan elites... who blame America first? Do you think America is to blame? Or do you believe in American greatness?"

Somewhere deep inside us, regardless of party, I think we all believe in American greatness...

I know my grandfather did – the man who only finished 7th grade, and in his retirement went on to become a state legislator... in charge of his state's education department!

Only in America, as they say.

His children – my father, my aunts, and my uncles – all eight of them are a darn impressive bunch... an economics professor, a teacher, a journalist, a nurse, three lawyers (including one that was twice the Democrat Party's gubernatorial nominee), and his eldest daughter, the Mayor of the city my grandfather once worked for...

You see, it can happen, right here in America... in the land of the free and the home of the brave.

My grandfather loved this country and all it enabled him and his family to achieve – because, fundamentally, America is good.

Where should money be now?

I have been talking about the market risks for too long and I'm not sure I can add much of anything new now. So let me just share with you another writeup forwarded by my friend. It is said this one is from a very successful veteran trader who retired at age of 42 by trading options only. Needless to say he is very keen about risk/reward and sensitive about the market risks. Per my friend, this trader has been warning about a sizable correction for quite a while already and is increasingly piling up his cash load waiting for a right moment to go long again. Now he is sharing one sector that he thinks is one of the best places to put money into now.

Though I know most people don't like to buy cheap stuff but are more interested in chasing high flys. 🤓😷

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This divergence between techs and financials is unusual. It's going to reverse at some point. Money will rotate out of the high-flying technology stocks that are trading at historically rich valuations and flow into "value" stocks that have not participated much in the market's rally.

I thought we might have reached that point last month when the Technology/Financial ratio chart hit its highest level since the dot-com bubble burst back in 2000. But, as I mentioned above, extreme conditions have gotten even more extreme.

Take a look…

This is a ratio chart that shows the share price of the Technology Sector ETF (XLK) divided by the Financial Sector ETF (XLF). When the chart moves higher, tech stocks are outperforming financials. And, when the chart moves lower, XLF is doing better than XLK.

So far this year, XLK is far outperforming XLF – to a degree we haven't seen since 2000. It's not sustainable. It's going to reverse. And, when that reversal happens, the move lower on this chart is likely to be as swift as the move higher has been.

In other words, you're not going to want to own tech stocks. You'll want to be in the unloved financial sector.

Despite my concerns over the health of the broad stock market, I've been slowly, and steadily putting money into the financial sector over the past several weeks. It's arguably one of the cheapest sectors in the market.

Most financial stocks are trading at historically low valuations. And, the technical patterns appear to be turning bullish.

If we do hit a rough patch in the stock market over the next several weeks, money is likely to come out of the tech sector and flow into financial stocks. That could spark a pretty hard decline in many of this year's best-performing stocks. And, it could spark one heck of a rally in the banks.

A crash between bulls and bears over Tesla

This is probably the fiercest bull-bear debate over electric-car maker Tesla (TSLA). And it probably won't disappear any time soon. I personally cannot understand a case to be made based on fundamentals. As such I'm more lining towards the bearish case fundamentals.  But I'm definitely not a short guy for TSLA as it is damn risky! Musk is notoriously good at suddenly pulling out rabbits from his hat and TSLA fans just love it and will chase regardless. Having said that I'm constantly trading TSLA on both sides depending on its TA at a given spot of time. For example, I did two trades this week, initially shorting it with an option spread and then going long later in the week and both worked out perfectly. After closing out a profitable bullish trade today, I'm opening a bearish trade for the next few days at least.  But I can tell you, shorting it is more challenging these days as it can flip its trend very quickly. So I have learnt to take profit quickly instead of waiting for the max potential gain.

Today, I'm just sharing with you both sides of the debate, which my friend forwarded to me lately. Make up your own mind!😇

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The bulls have been triumphant so far, as TSLA shares are now trading for more than $2,000... and the company's market cap is approaching $400 billion. Will this continue?

For the bull case, watch this long (43-minute) conversation between Tesla Daily's Rob Maurer and Mad Money's Jim Cramer (hint: listen at 2x speed): Jim Cramer & Rob Maurer Discuss TSLA Stock, Elon Musk, Tesla's Battery Day, and Tesla's Advantages

For the bear case, here's the latest from my friend Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners, who thinks "the stock may represent the largest single bubble – as measured by market capitalization of nearly $400 billion – in history"...

Trade of the Week (and Investment Short) – Short Tesla ($2014)

* I have assiduously avoided shorting Tesla for years.

* No more...

Telsa's shares have climbed from [roughly] $350/share on March 19, 2020 to over $2,000 today.

It can now be argued that Tesla's shares represent not only a good short-term short but, at current prices, the stock may represent the largest single bubble – as measured by market capitalization of nearly $400 billion – in history.

Here are the major points to my short investment thesis:

* Tesla has a shallow moat – the manufacturer has nothing that is proprietary in terms of electric car technology. Tesla's competitors (in the U.S., Europe, and in China) have a century of experience consistently manufacturing and distributing high-quality automobiles which subsidized ongoing operating losses from their electric car endeavors.

* Polestar, Audi, Volkswagen (VLKAF), and others have highly rated electric vehicle ("EV") offerings that are now or will be shortly offered.

* Adjusted for the sale of emission credits, Tesla has never been profitable in its 17 years of existence (despite having no competition and no need for advertising). In July, Tesla reported second quarter net income of $104 million, which included $428 million of pure profit emission credit sales, a revenue stream that will be drastically reduced later this year and which Tesla openly admits will disappear completely some time in 2021 (when other manufacturers have enough EVs of their own). Excluding that, Tesla lost $324 million and that's before the accounting of a questionably low warranty reserve. The worrisome and accounting, recently pointed out by @WallStCynic, "depreciation and amortization was down (!) year over year despite a new factory coming on line. SG&A and research and development was also down year over year." While sales are shrinking, the accounts receivable line is growing (remember this is a company that demands pre-payment before delivery.

* Tesla, at best, undertakes aggressive accounting. There are multiple lawsuits regarding the purchase of Solar City (which arguably bailed out the finances of Elon Musk and his family).

* Management turmoil at Tesla has intensified over the last one to two years.

* Tesla's quarterly sales have actually dropped since the end of 2018. The only reason Tesla's sales are being maintained is because of massive price cutting – and this is BEFORE the onslaught of competition that is on Tesla's door step.

* Tesla's second quarter revenues were buoyed by price cuts and sales into China (where EV competition is just beginning to start) while the rest of world sales were -30%. (For perspective General Motors (GM) sold over 710k units in China compared to only 30k for Tesla). Current sales are so weak that Tesla is aggressively advertising a price drop for the Model Y. The company's market share in the competitive European EV market has fallen from about 30% to single digits.

* The market is not static. Analysts and market participants fail to consider how much of Tesla's share of the EV market will be taken by the new models introduced by nearly every auto manufacturer, who's announced spending plans will dwarf Tesla's anticipated outlays. From Mark Spiegel: "Noted competition will include the Audi Q4 e-tron and Q4 e-tron Sportback, BMW iX3 (in Europe & China), Mercedes EQB, Volvo XC40, Volkswagen ID.4 and Nissan Ariya, while less expensive and available now are the excellent all-electric Hyundai Kona and Kia Niro, extremely well reviewed small crossovers with an EPA range of 258 miles for the Hyundai and 238 miles for the Kia, at prices of under $30,000 inclusive of the $7500 U.S. tax credit. Meanwhile, the Model 3 now has terrific direct "sedan competition" from Volvo's beautiful new Polestar 2 and the premium version of Volkswagen's ID.3, and next year from the BMW i4."

* The mere presence of all the competition will clearly lead to margin compression. As previously mentioned, Tesla is already cutting prices of its existing models.

* Bullish analysts base their future stock price evaluations on unsupported assumptions of what share Tesla will take of the global automobile market. They further assume that the margins that existed over the last two years – a period in which Tesla has faced little or no competition, will be maintained in the future.

* Tesla faces numerous lawsuits, including a May lawsuit accusing the company of selling units that were a fire hazard and a potentially significant and well publicized sudden acceleration class lawsuit delivered in July. Range claim issues have also recently arisen.

* Tesla no longer has a stock split as a catalyst as the company already announced a 5-1 stock split for shareholders of record on August 21.

Bottom Line

I have assiduously avoided shorting Tesla over the years, in part because of the high short interest, which has subsequently contracted to more "reasonable" levels.

I have followed Tesla for over a decade and I could add materially to the bearish case that I have summarized this morning.

That position has now changed.

Faced with an onslaught of competition, Tesla's market cap is now nearly 4x that of Ford (F), General Motors and Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) combined – despite selling only about 400k cars/year, compared to the "big three's" sales of 17 million units.

I am adding Tesla to my Best Ideas List (short).

Here is another one: David Trainer of research firm New Constructs recently posted his bearish case for the stock here: Tesla: The Most Dangerous Stock for Fiduciaries. Summary:

• TSLA's performance, including the recent stock split-driven price spike, makes the stock more attractive to many momentum/technical traders. 
• More cautious investors and fiduciaries should only be more wary and should consider the unusually high level of risk in the stock given that fundamentals are not driving the price.
• Tesla is priced as if it will not only achieve the scale and production of a mass-market automaker, but do so while maintaining its well above-average vehicle prices. 
• Even if we assume Tesla can achieve a 7% NOPAT margin, equal to Toyota, and grow revenue by 26% compounded annually (in line with consensus estimates through 2025) for the next decade, the stock is worth only $813/share today – a 57% downside to the current stock price.

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By the way, you must know by now that it is nearly a certainty that Wechat will be gone in the US. So very soon we have to communicate via other media. For DW investment group, we have set up a Telegram group. If you want to join,

Here is the link for "DW  谈股论金": https://t.me/joinchat/SgYa_xNrjTNHk9cS51ke0A.    

Importantly, you cannot join directly via Wechat. Two options:

1. When open the blog in Wechat,  点击右上角的三点，然后选在Safari 中open，然后点击the link and then join 
2. Or copy the link and paste to Safari to open and then join 

A Speech Only Melania Could Give

A Speech Only Melania Could Give

By Mollie Hemingway  

Melania Trump gave a long and detailed speech to end the night. Her 2016 convention speech was well received but was found to have included lines from a speech Michelle Obama had previously given. There was no way that the speech she gave last night could be delivered by anyone else, and certainly not by Michelle Obama.

The media worshiped and adored Michelle Obama's speech, which included lines suggesting that if you disagreed with it, it was because you were racist. Both she and her husband were seething with disdain and hatred in their speeches, which the media found very compelling.

Melania Trump, by contrast, gave an incredibly positive and empathetic speech. She expressed concern for pretty much all Americans, from those affected by the coronavirus to those concerned about unequal treatment under the law. She asked the rioters to stop rioting — something Biden didn't have the courage to do — and asked Americans to try to look at things from each other's perspective.

One line really drove home the contrast between the current and former first ladies. She said, "As you have heard this evening, I don't want to use this precious time attacking the other side, because as we saw last week, that kind of talk only serves to divide the country further."

Instead she concluded by making the case that her husband is "what is best for our country." She spoke lovingly of her husband, who had been attacked relentlessly at the Democratic convention. "We all know Donald Trump makes no secret about how he feels about things. Whether you like it or not, you always know what he's thinking. And that is because he is a person who loves this country and its people and wants to continue to make it better. Donald wants to keep your family safe, he wants to help your family succeed. He wants nothing more than for the country to prosper and he doesn't waste time playing politics."

Democratic Counter-Programming Is Riots And Mobs

Democrats decided to endorse the violent "peaceful protests" that have gripped the nation's cities this summer. At no point in their convention did a single speaker speak against the riots or the violence that have hurt cities and their inhabitants. Many praised or justified the unrest.

On the second night of the Republican convention, the riots continued in Kenosha, Wisconsin, a small city north of Chicago. Democratic mayors and governors have resisted pleas from citizens to restore order. Yesterday, the Democrat governor of Wisconsin refused an offer from the Trump administration to send in help. As the Republican convention concluded, the riots had "intensified" into greater unrest. Portland also experienced another night in its three months of unrest.

In Washington, D.C., this week, mobs of activists roamed streets forcing strangers to raise their fist in a show of solidarity with their cause or be shouted at and threatened until they succumbed.

Political parties usually try to lay low or provide effective responses to the opposite party's convention. Democrats, having squandered their opportunity to speak against the leftist mobs hitting cities during their convention, may struggle with how to seem less friendly toward the riots in the months to come.

CNN's Don Lemon and Chris Cuomo worried about how the riots were "showing up in the polling" and pleaded with Democrats to stop being so silent.

It's not just that the Republican convention is going well, but that the Democratic counter-programming of riots and mobs couldn't be worse for Democrats.

Real story behind the post office 'election theft' conspiracy...

 

Don't Fall for the Post Office 'Election Theft' Conspiracy Theory
By Buck Sexton

Dear reader,

If you want to get attention in 2020, come up with a crazy conspiracy involving President Donald Trump...

Even the most so-called sophisticated political minds fall prey to the most outlandish anti-Trump tale.

First came "Russia Collusion." For three years of the Trump presidency, the news media ran wild with their theories of international scheming and traitorous undermining of American democracy.

This scheme had its foundation in the dossier from Christopher Steele, a sloppy British ex-spy, who dressed up gossip as intel reporting and managed to dupe an all-too-willing cabal at the FBI with lurid tales of golden showers in Moscow, among other outrageous charges.

A thriller writer would have passed on it as a plot for a novel. CNN and the national media had no such reservations.

It led to countless hours of media coverage and a yearslong special counsel investigation. Now we know, beyond any reasonable doubt, the Russia Collusion scheme was a fairytale. The Mueller probe confirmed it and the Durham investigation has racked up its first prosecution of a former FBI lawyer who was part of the fabrication.

And the final bipartisan investigative report released yesterday by the Senate Intelligence Committee, which interviewed more than 200 witnesses and reviewed more than 1 million pages of documents, also found no evidence of collusion. Acting Chairman Marco Rubio noted in a statement:

We can say, without any hesitation, that the Committee found absolutely no evidence that then-candidate Donald Trump or his campaign colluded with the Russian government to meddle in the 2016 election.

What the Committee did find however is very troubling. We found irrefutable evidence of Russian meddling. And we discovered deeply troubling actions taken by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, particularly their acceptance and willingness to rely on the 'Steele Dossier' without verifying its methodology or sourcing.

Nonetheless, the political maneuvering of the Russia collusion catastrophe served its purpose for a time. The process was the punishment.

Trump's administration spent enormous energy and resources defending itself from this fabrication of Hillary Clinton's Democratic Party and a handful of Deep State plotters inside the federal bureaucracy. The idea of collusion also gave the Democrat base a comforting story to tell that absolved Hillary of losing and redirected its constituents' anger.

To the Democrat faithful, Russia collusion meant that Trump cheated, so he isn't really the president.

Now, the Democrats are running the same playbook for the 2020 election...

The Post Office conspiracy is becoming the Democrat Party's "secret weapon" narrative to fire up its base and undermine any Trump victory before a single vote is cast.

In short, the new theory is that Donald Trump is trying to defund or even eliminate the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) in order to stop vote-by-mail operations across the country.

But the evidence ranges from the dishonest to the absurd...

Photos appeared across social media last week showing post office employees removing mailboxes from the street. Other photos showed locked mailboxes.

Turns out none of the pictures showed anything nefarious or even unusual – post offices often adjust drop box locations – but it didn't matter. The story was too good for Trump haters to pass up.

Then, Democratic leadership like Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer went full throttle with allegations that Trump was undermining the Post Office as a voter-suppression scheme because he won't agree to a $25 billion bailout check for the USPS.

I hope we can agree there is a difference between allegations that Trump is "dismantling the USPS," as pop music star Taylor Swift weighed in on Twitter, and declining to be politically blackmailed into handing that same agency billions of dollars more after it has lost billions year after year.

Simply put, the allegations are nuts. The Postal Service doesn't answer to Trump. It's already funded until 2021. And there is no danger that Trump can pull all money from it, nor is he threatening to do so.

In reality, the Democrats have decided that they want universal mail-in ballots for this election, without anywhere near the logistical planning or funding surge necessary to prepare for that in a reasonable fashion. It is also a massive invitation for voter fraud in what is likely to be a very tight election.

Beyond that, the USPS is a poorly run entity that has been losing billions of dollars in recent years (around $78 billion since 2007). It has 600,000 employees, but its mail carriage was down 33% in 2019. And about half of what is does deliver is junk mail and unwanted marketing material. In a world with FedEx, UPS, and Amazon, the USPS needs to be pared down and streamlined. Trump advocates for this because it is what common sense demands.

Instead of acknowledging the real problems from the USPS, Democrats have seized this moment for maximum political advantage. They are claiming Trump's refusal to cave to their every demand for the USPS is tantamount to another Russia collusion election theft.

With the 2020 election looming, it's clear what's at play. This post office conspiracy not only fires up the Democrat base, it also gives them a ready excuse in case Trump wins. "He stole it!" will be the rallying cry of the resistance.

And we will all be worse off as a country for the lie.

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By the way, you must know by now that it is nearly a certainty that Wechat will be gone in the US. So very soon we have to communicate via other media. For DW investment group, we have set up a Telegram group. If you want to join,

Here is the link for "DW  谈股论金": https://t.me/joinchat/SgYa_xNrjTNHk9cS51ke0A.    

Importantly, you cannot join directly via Wechat. Two options:

1. When open the blog in Wechat,  点击右上角的三点，然后选在Safari 中open，然后点击the link and then join 
2. Or copy the link and paste to Safari to open and then join 

Biden's empty promises

I Read Joe Biden's 564 Pages of Empty Promises
So You Don't Have To
By P.J. O'Rourke

Dear reader,

You're welcome. Now I'll tell you what you're thanking me for...

I just read Joe Biden's presidential campaign platform so you don't have to.

If you're thinking, "Thanks anyway, but I'll read it for myself," think again...

Joe has 43 exhaustively detailed platform planks. My print-out totaled 564 pages, and that's not counting the pleas for campaign donations and campaign volunteers tacked onto the end of each document or the full text of "Joe's Leadership During the COVID-19 Pandemic" that sends you down a rabbit hole of links to everything Joe has ever said about the coronavirus.

I burned through an ink cartridge and wasted more than a reforestation's worth of copy paper. (Joe has a plan for reforestation – Joe has a plan for everything.) I used up three pads of Post-It notes, dried out four highlighter pens, and spent three days I'll never get back reading and annotating Joe's platform. In the middle of the second day, I had to lie down in a darkened room with a cold compress on my forehead.

But although Joe has a plan for everything and can't shut up when explaining his plans, he doesn't make it easy to find out exactly what these plans are. (And perhaps that's a wise move for someone trying to attract "Anybody-But-Trump" moderate voters.

If you care to repeat my reading experience, you'll have to go to the "Joe Biden for President: Official Campaign Website" and get past all the pestering for donations and amateurish videos of Joe interacting with highly diverse and moderately enthusiastic supporters until you find the little "Menu" icon among the screen clutter.

Click on that, and you'll be presented with a list of (not very enticing) options. Ignoring "Home," "Joe's Story," "Action Center," "The Latest," "Store," "How to Vote," and "En Español," click on "Joe's Vision." This will take you to "Bold Ideas." Beneath that heading, there's an array of 43 boxes similar to Jeopardy! categories. (And unless you lack any political conservatism whatsoever and are bereft of every libertarian principle, the "jeopardy" comparison is apt.)

What you find when you open the first box sets the tone:

The Biden Plan to Secure Environmental Justice and Equitable Economic Opportunity in a Clean Energy Future... While Rubbing His Tummy and Patting His Head and Spinning a Plate on His Toe

OK, I invented the last part, but you get the general idea. And please excuse me for reprinting (without invention) the exquisitely dull paragraph that follows. It, in turn, sets the tone for how Biden's general ideas are specifically presented.

The current COVID-19 pandemic reminds us how profoundly the energy and environmental policy decisions of the past have failed communities of color – allowing systemic shocks, persistent stressors, and pandemics to disproportionately impact communities of color and low-income communities.

That's Joe telling us what he's going to do about pollution.

His "It's the End of the World – Poor and Minorities Hardest Hit" attitude persists through all 564 pages. So does the pretentious and silly verbiage – "disproportionately impact," "persistent stressors," "systemic shocks," "environmental justice," etc. Every one of the 43 platform planks seems to have been written by perfervid freshmen political-science majors in a dorm room bull session after taking methamphetamine.

To give the briefest of examples, there's this phrase from "The Biden Plan for Combating Coronavirus (COVID-19)": "Stand up a Pandemic Testing Board to massively surge a nationwide campaign..."

The platform planks are numbingly repetitious, full of grammatical errors, and occasionally just stupid. The little Jeopardy box that you open to read Joe's policy prescriptions for increasing the physical safety of women is labeled "The Biden Plan for Violence Against Women."

However, the real problem with Joe's campaign platform is quantitative not qualitative. All presidential candidates make a lot of promises, but there is a point where "a lot" turns into a multitude, a profusion, a passel, a slew, oodles, scads, heaps, piles, and – frankly – a shitload. And then the promises, by dint of sheer number, become lies...

Joe is lying his head off. He promises a carbon-pollution-free power sector by 2035, a net-zero emissions national economy by 2050, and the creation of "millions of jobs producing clean electric power for American families and businesses," presumably by rubbing our socks on the carpet and touching the doorknob.

Plus, Joe promises "decarbonizing the food and agriculture sector." This is strange because I was under the impression that almost all the food we eat comes from carbon-based life forms.

If we have any food to eat... Joe comes very close to promising the nationalization of agriculture with a declaration that new agricultural technologies and seed stocks "should be developed and owned by the American people, not private companies who can use patents to expand profits." And he comes close again in his proposal for "making sure small and medium-sized farms and producers have access to fair markets... and get fair prices." Here come price controls.

Joe promises to create 250,000 jobs plugging abandoned gas and oil wells and reclaiming abandoned mines, part of his promise for "conserving 30% of America's lands and waters by 2030." Quit splashing in that mud puddle, Johnny, it's a national park.

Joe promises 1 million new jobs in the American auto industry, although he also promises to establish "ambitious fuel economy standards," raise the gas tax, build the "cleanest, safest, fastest rail system in the world," and provide public transit for every city with a population of more than 100,000. (Bend, Oregon gets light rail! To take you to – according to Wikipedia – the last remaining officially licensed Blockbuster video store in the world.)

Also, I'm sure the 1 million new auto-industry workers will be interested to hear Joe's lament that "families rely on cars, which can be a big financial burden [and] clog roadways."

Those roadways, Joe promises, will have 500,000 electric-vehicle charging stations. But you won't need them because Joe promises "new highways that can charge electric cars while in transit" (and add a spark to the lives of America's school-crossing guards).

Unfortunately, the highways won't work for Uber drivers... because there won't be any Uber drivers. Joe promises "tough enforcement to end the misclassification of workers as independent contractors" and to make sure that "workers in the 'gig economy'" receive "full benefit packages."

But that's OK... With Joe as president, you won't need to work in the gig economy. You can flip "fair-price" hamburgers (perhaps available with a ration card at the "fair market"). Joe promises to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour and index the minimum wage to the local "median hourly wage" and eliminate the "tipped minimum wage" loophole that allows restaurants to hire cheap help. (Yet, somehow, Joe "will also support small businesses like restaurants during this economic crisis.")

Or, with Joe as president, you won't need to work at all... You can go to college. Joe promises that all public colleges and universities will be tuition-free for families with incomes under $125,000. Historically Black colleges, tribal colleges, and "minority serving institutions" will be tuition-free too, and all federal student debt incurred at them will be forgiven.

Two years of community college "or other high-quality training" will be free for everyone. Student loan payments under the Public Service Loan Forgiveness and "income-based repayment" programs will be cut in half. Student debt will be dischargeable by bankruptcy. And "students will be able to use their Pell grants, state aid, and other aid to help them cover expenses beyond tuition and fees." Cue Prince's Little Red Corvette...

Of course, you can't go to college until you've gone to primary school – as soon as you can walk. Joe promises universal pre-K for three- and four-year-olds. And he promises "double the number of psychologists, guidance counselors, nurses, social workers, and other health professionals in our schools." Although whether this is a promise or a threat, I'm not sure. Johnny, if you don't sit down and behave, I'll send you to the "other" health professional.

The school psychologists, anyway, will be busy. In "The Biden Plan for Full Participation and Equality for People with Disabilities," Joe cites "emotional disturbance" as a disability, which will pretty much require one full-time government-funded shrink for every teenager in the nation.

None of these people, however, will have to worry about where they live. Joe promises to "expand housing benefits for first-responders, public school educators, and other public and national service workers." Although, Joe also promises "the mobilization of health care workers nationwide." (Your draft notice is in the mail. And I hope you like your new barracks.)

For second, third, and fourth responders and other such, Joe promises to "spur the construction of 1.5 million sustainable homes and housing units."

Although you may not get to live in them because Joe promises to "increase the number of refugees we welcome into the country" and "welcome immigrants in our communities"... while also making sure "that employers are not taking advantage of immigrant workers" (by, you know, hiring them for jobs that can be done by unskilled people who can't speak English, or something).

But don't worry about having a roof over your head. Joe promises to make "housing a right for all" with "a new Homeowner and Renter Bill of Rights" which will "protect tenants from eviction" and "eliminate exclusionary zoning" (in case you want to start a trailer park in your driveway).

Where you'll be housed is another matter. Joe promises to "ensure growth is shared by communities across the country." Paducah is lovely in the spring. Or you might just wind up on the wrong side of the tracks. Joe promises to alter "local regulations to eliminate sprawl and allow for denser, more affordable housing near public transit."

Wherever you wind up, you'll have "universal, reliable, affordable, and high-speed Internet," Joe promises.

So you'll be fine... Unless, of course, you try to make money. Joe promises to "keep well-off business owners from using any program to unjustly enrich themselves." And if you've already unjustly enriched yourself, don't go trying to save and invest that money. Joe promises to close "loopholes in our tax system that reward wealth, not work." He promises he'll be "getting rid of capital gains tax loopholes" and will "restore the 39.6% top tax rate" and raise the cap on Social Security taxes while he's at it. Joe promises "common-sense tax reforms that finally make sure the wealthiest Americans pay their fair share." You probably didn't even know you were a wealthy American – but you'll find out that you are... if Joe keeps his promises.

Which, with the unfortunate exception of the tax increases, he cannot conceivably do. I have, so far, barely skimmed the flotsam and jetsam from the surface of the ocean of promises Joe makes. While navigating, with increasing mal de mer, the bounding main of his campaign platform (soon to fill the recycling bin to its brim), I did my best to keep a list of Joe's promises. That list is 25 pages long.

The promises range from the grandiose and delusive – "Protect and Empower Women Globally" – to the disturbingly picayune – "Create a 'Safer for Shoppers' program that gives compliant businesses a sign for their window."

Some proposals exude a whiff of totalitarianism, such as the promise to "Ensure questions about sexual orientation and gender identity are included in national surveys and data collection efforts... including the decennial Census." While other items on the Biden agenda smell of a total divorce from reality: "smarter cities that can withstand storms, floods, heat, wildfires, sea level rise, and more." Alexa, drain the basement.

Joe makes all the standard-issue liberal promises, of course. He'll lead us, without map or compass (or caveat), into the Green New Deal's impenetrable jungle of policies and endless wilderness of expense.

Joe will provide "a public option health plan" that will cover contraception and abortion, restore federal funding to Planned Parenthood, and "codify Roe v. Wade" into federal law. (But he won't, presumably, go so far as to make having babies illegal.)

Joe will lower the cost of health care insurance for middle-class families, "cutting their premiums almost in half," slash prescription-drug prices, limit price increases of generic drugs to the inflation rate, and allow consumers to buy prescription drugs from other countries. (Ukraine, maybe?)

Joe will not only expand Medicaid eligibility, but (another whiff of totalitarianism) he'll do so by "automatically enrolling... individuals when they interact with certain institutions (such as public schools) or other programs for low income populations." Buying your groceries with a SNAP EBT card? Turn your head and cough.

Joe will decriminalize cannabis, end "all incarceration for drug use alone" (no sharing!), eliminate mandatory minimum prison sentences, end the death penalty, and appoint the first African-American woman to Supreme Court (whether she wants to go there or not).

Joe will pass the Equal Rights Amendment, "reverse the transgender military ban," roll back "broad religious exemptions to existing nondiscrimination laws and policies," and "restore transgender students' access to sports, bathroom, and locker rooms in accordance with their gender identity." (Where did the girl's field hockey team get that 6'4" goalkeeper with a beard?)

Joe will institute public financing of elections, pass a "Constitutional amendment to entirely eliminate private dollars from our federal elections," ban all contributions from lobbyists "to those who [sic] they lobby," and provide matching funds for "federal candidates receiving small dollar donations." Loved all of those $5 contributions you got, Bernie, here's another fiver from the Treasury.

Joe "will immediately do away with the Trump Administration's draconian immigration policies" and "ensure asylum laws protect people fleeing persecution." Though, I doubt this asylum will include people fleeing persecution from Joe's threat to "hold corporate executives personally accountable – including jail time when merited" if they violate environmental regulations or labor laws.

Joe will reinstate the assault-weapon ban (never mind that this is a law about how guns look, not what guns do). He'll hold gun manufacturers liable for damages if one of the guns they made hurts someone. (Next, I guess, is holding cement mixers liable if I drop a concrete block on my foot.) He'll make background checks mandatory not just for gun sales but for every kind of gun transfer.

When my son was 10, he got a .22 for Christmas. Can Santa pass a background check? That North Pole address looks fishy – especially what with global warming filling the Arctic with swimming elves and reindeer.

Also, Santa, "Whatcha gonna do when they come for you?" Joe promises to "notify law enforcement when a potential firearms purchaser fails a background check" – whether the guy gets a gun or not.

There's all this... and much, much more...

And yet – whether he seems to be awake or not – at least Joe isn't woke. Biden is a member of the old-fashioned liberal elite, not the modern loony Left. He uses every imaginable pretext to pledge "good-paying union jobs." He wimps out on the question of slavery reparations: "a Biden Administration will support a study of reparations." (Italics added, but – given what happens when politicians "study" an issue – not needed.) He even makes two brief favorable mentions of "advanced nuclear reactors" to produce electricity. Joe is not a modern loony Leftist. But he's a reminder of just how loony the old-fashioned liberal elite can be.

The concept of "governmental overreach" is beyond the elite's comprehension. "President Biden will ensure that no child's future is determined by their zip code, parent's income, race, or disability" claims "Joe's Plan for Educators, Students, and our Future."

Also beyond liberal comprehension is the notion that liberal elites don't control the universe. "The Biden Plan for Combating Coronavirus (COVID-19)" contains the statement "Biden would also get ahead of this year's seasonal flu..." which will break out before Joe is in any governmental position at all.

With governmental elitism comes a contempt for the people who are to be governed. They are pissed upon from a great height as in "Lift Every Voice: The Biden Plan for Black America" where Joe declares, without embarrassment, that he'll "give local elected officials the tools and resources they need to combat gentrification."

And the liberal elite worldview does not seem to be a view of the world that the rest of us live in. Here, from "The Biden Plan for Ending Gun Violence," is Joe's proposal to "tackle urban gun violence" with something called "Group Violence Intervention" which "organizes community leaders to work with individuals most likely to commit acts of gun violence, express the community's demand that the gun violence stop, and connect individuals who may be likely perpetrators with social and economic support services that may deter violent behavior." (Take that, Crips and Bloods!)

There's nothing senile about Joe... There's nothing wrong with his brain... His thinking is terrifyingly clear... Joe is an all too actively minded idiot.

******************************************************

By the way, you must know by now that it is nearly a certainty that Wechat will be gone in the US. So very soon we have to communicate via other media. For DW investment group, we have set up a Telegram group. If you want to join,

Here is the link for "DW  谈股论金": https://t.me/joinchat/SgYa_xNrjTNHk9cS51ke0A.    

Importantly, you cannot join directly via Wechat. Two options:

1. When open the blog in Wechat,  点击右上角的三点，然后选在Safari 中open，然后点击the link and then join 
2. Or copy the link and paste to Safari to open and then join 

NYC Is Dead Forever...

Today I'm sharing with you a writeup by a veteran hedge fund manager Jim Altucher about the prospects of New York City, where he lives. It is quite dismal! While the COVID 19 pandemic has certainly played the major role for such a declining future for NYC, the leftist government's terrible policies to defund policy and encourage violence and riots have definitely added the last straw to drive people away. Speaking of which: "People will ask, 'Wait a second, I was paying over 16% in state and city taxes and these other states and cities have little to no taxes? And I don't have to deal with all the other headaches of NYC?'   I wish NYC citizens were smart enough to bring the normalcy back by voting out the worst and crazy mayor and those leftists supporting violence, I'm not sure this will happen given the long standing left force deeply rooted there. Good luck, New Yorkers!

NYC Is Dead Forever... Here's Why

By James Altucher

I love NYC. When I first moved to NYC, it was a dream come true. Every corner was like a theater production happening right in front of me. So much personality, so many stories. Every subculture I loved was in NYC. I could play chess all day and night. I could go to comedy clubs. I could start any type of business. I could meet people. I had family, friends, opportunities. No matter what happened to me, NYC was a net I could fall back on and bounce back up. Now it's completely dead. "But NYC always always bounces back." No. Not this time. "But NYC is the center of the financial universe. Opportunities will flourish here again." Not this time. "NYC has experienced worse." No it hasn't. A Facebook group formed a few weeks ago that was for people who were planning a move and wanted others to talk to and ask advice from. Within two or three days it had about 10,000 members. Every day I see more and more posts, "I've been in NYC forever but I guess this time I have to say goodbye." Every single day I see those posts. I've been screenshotting them for my scrapbook. Three of the most important reasons to move to NYC: Business opportunities Culture Food And, of course, friends. But if everything I say below is even 1/10 of what I think, then there won't be as many opportunities to make friends. A) BUSINESS Midtown Manhattan, the center of business in NYC, is empty. Even though people can go back to work, famous office buildings like the Time-Life skyscraper are still 90% empty. Businesses have realized that they don't need their employees at the office. In fact, they've realized they are even more productive with everyone at home. The Time-Life Building can handle 8,000 workers. Now it maybe has 500 workers back. (Midtown reopened, but still empty) "What do you mean?" a friend of mine said to me when I told him Midtown should be called Ghost Town. "I'm in my office right now!" "What are you doing there?" "Packing up," he said and laughed, "I'm shutting it down." He works in the entertainment business. Another friend of mine works at a major investment bank as a managing director. Before the pandemic, he was at the office every day, sometimes working from 6 a.m.–10 p.m. Now he lives in Phoenix, Arizona. "As of June," he told me, "I had never even been to Phoenix." And then he moved there. He does all his meetings on Zoom. I was talking to a book editor who has been out of the city since early March. "We've been all working fine. I'm not sure why we would need to go back to the office." One friend of mine, Derek Halpern, was convinced he'd stay. He put up a Facebook post the other day saying he might be changing his mind. Derek wrote: "In the last week: I watched a homeless person lose his mind and start attacking random pedestrians. Including spitting on, throwing stuff at, and swatting. I've seen several single parents with a child asking for money for food. And then, when someone gave them food, tossed the food right back at them. I watched a man yell racist slurs at every single race of people while charging, then stopping before going too far. And worse. I've been living in New York City for about 10 years. It has definitely gotten worse and there's no end in sight. My favorite park is Madison Square Park. About a month ago a 19-year-old girl was shot and killed across the street. I don't think I have an answer but I do think it's clear: it's time to move out of NYC. I'm not the only one who feels this way, either. In my building alone, the rent has plummeted almost 30% — more people are moving away than ever before. So... It's not goodbye yet. But a lifelong New Yorker is thinking about it." I picked his post out but I could've picked from dozens of others. People say, "NYC has been through worse," or "NYC has always come back." No and no. First, when has NYC been through worse? Even in the 1970s, and through the '80s, when NYC was going bankrupt, even when it was the crime capital of the U.S. or close to it, it was still the capital of the business world (meaning, it was the primary place young people would go to build wealth and find opportunity). It was culturally on top of its game — home to artists, theater, media, advertising, publishing. And it was probably the food capital of the U.S. (NYC in the '70s) NYC has never been locked down for five months. Not in any pandemic, war, financial crisis, never. In the middle of the polio epidemic, when little kids (including my mother) were becoming paralyzed or dying (my mother ended up with a bad leg), NYC didn't go through this. This is not to say what should have been done or should not have been done. That part is over. Now we have to deal with what IS. In early March, many people (not me), left NYC when they felt it would provide safety from the virus and they no longer needed to go to work and all the restaurants were closed. People figured, "I'll get out for a month or two and then come back." They are all still gone. And then in June, during rioting and looting, a second wave of NYCers (this time including me) left. I have kids. Nothing was wrong with the protests but I was a little nervous when I saw videos of rioters after curfew trying to break into my building. Many people left temporarily but there were also people leaving permanently. Friends of mine moved to Nashville, Miami, Austin, Denver, Salt Lake City, Dallas, etc. Now a third wave of people is leaving. But they might be too late. Prices are down 30–50% on both rentals and sales no matter what real estate people tell you. And rentals are soaring in the second- and third-tier cities. I'm temporarily, although maybe permanently, in South Florida now. I also got my place sight unseen. Robyn was looking at listings around Miami and then she saw an area we had never been to before. We found three houses we liked. She called the real estate agent. Place No. 1: Just rented that morning 50% higher than the asking price. Place No. 2: Also rented (by other New Yorkers. The agent said they came from New York for three hours, saw the place, got it, and went back to pack). Place No. 3: Available. "We'll take it!" The first time we physically saw it was when we flew down and moved in. "This is temporary, right?" I confirmed with Robyn. But… I don't know. I'm starting to like the sun a little bit. I mean, when it's behind the shades. And when I am in air conditioning. But let's move on for a second: Summary: Businesses are remote and they aren't returning to the office. And it's a death spiral — the longer offices remain empty, the longer they will remain empty. In 2005, a hedge fund manager was visiting my office and said, "In Manhattan you practically trip over opportunities in the street." Now the streets are empty. B) CULTURE I co-own a comedy club, Standup NY, on 78th and Broadway. I'm very, very proud of the club and grateful to my fellow owners Dani Zoldan and Gabe Waldman and our manager Jon Boreamayo. It's a great club. It's been around since 1986 and before that it was a theater. One time, Henry Winkler stopped by to come on my podcast. He was the one who told me it had been a theater. He said, "I grew up two doors down from here and used to perform here as a kid. Then I went out to LA to be the Fonz and now I'm back here, full circle, to be on your podcast. This place has history." Things like that happen in NYC. (When Henry Winkler stopped by Standup NY and I got to meet the Fonz!) In the past year, Jim Gaffigan, Jerry Seinfeld, Tracy Morgan, and many others have been on the stage. It's only one step to get onstage. Jim Gaffigan fell flat on his face while he was walking up the step. The next day, on Seth Meyers' late night show, Jim said, "I failed at the one thing you're supposed to do — I couldn't stand up!" I love the club. Before the pandemic I would perform there throughout the week in addition to many other clubs around the city and, in the past few months, clubs in Chicago, Denver, San Jose, LA, Cincinnati, all over the Netherlands, and other places. I miss it. We had a show in May. An outdoor show. Everyone socially distanced. But we were shut down by the police. I guess we were superspreading humor during a very serious time. The club is doing something fun: It's doing shows outside in the park. This is a great idea. In a time like this, businesses need to give to the community, not complain and not take. That said, we have no idea when we will open. Nobody has any idea. And the longer we remain closed, the less chance we will ever reopen profitably. Broadway is closed until at least the spring. The Lincoln Center is closed. All the museums are closed. Forget about the tens of thousands of jobs lost in these cultural centers. Forget even about the millions of dollars of tourist-generated revenues lost by the closing of these centers. There are thousands of performers, producers, artists, and the entire ecosystem of art, theater, production, curation, that surrounds these cultural centers. People who have worked all of their lives for the right to be able to perform even once on Broadway, whose lives and careers have been put on hold. I get it. There was a pandemic. But the question now is: What happens next? And, given the uncertainty (since there is no known answer), and given the fact that people, cities, economies loathe uncertainty, we simply don't know the answer and that's a bad thing for New York City. Right now, Broadway is closed "at least until early 2021" and then there are supposed to be a series of "rolling dates" by which it will reopen. (The Schulman Theater on Broadway on a Friday evening) But is that true? We simply don't know. And what does that mean? And will it have to be only 25% capacity? Broadway shows can't survive with that! And will performers, writers, producers, investors, lenders, stagehands, landlords, etc. wait a year? Same for the museums, the Lincoln Center, and the thousands of other cultural reasons millions come to New York City every year. The hot dog stands outside of the Lincoln Center? Finished.

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C) FOOD My favorite restaurant is closed for good. OK, let's go to my second favorite. Closed for good. Third favorite, closed for good. I thought the PPP was supposed to help. No? What about emergency relief? No. Stimulus checks? Unemployment? No and no. OK, my fourth favorite, or what about that place I always ordered delivery from? No and no. Around late May, I took walks and saw that many places were boarded up. OK, I thought, because the protesting was leading to looting and the restaurants were protecting themselves. They'll be OK. Looking closer, I'd see the signs. For lease. For rent. For whatever. Before the pandemic, the average restaurant had only 16 days of cash on hand. Some had more (McDonalds), and some had less (the local mom-and-pop Greek diner). Yelp estimates that 60% of restaurants around the United States have closed. My guess is more than 60% will be closed in New York City but who knows. Someone said to me, "Well, people will want to come in now and start their own restaurants! There is less competition." I don't think you understand how restaurants work. Restaurants want other restaurants nearby. That's why there's one street in Manhattan (46th St. between 8th and 9th) called Restaurant Row. It's all restaurants. That's why there's another street called Little India and another one called Koreatown. (Restaurant Row) Restaurants happen in clusters and then people say, "Let's go out to eat," and even if they don't know where they want to eat they go to the area where all the restaurants are. If the restaurants are no longer clustered, fewer people go out to eat (they are on the fence about where so they elect to stay home). Restaurants breed more restaurants. And again, what happens to all the employees who work at these restaurants? They are gone. They left New York City. Where did they go? I know a lot of people who went to Maine, Vermont, Tennessee, upstate, Indiana, etc. Back to live with their parents or live with friends or live cheaper. They are gone, and gone for good. And what person wakes up today and says, "I can't wait to set up a pizza place in the location where 100,000 other pizza places just closed down."? People are going to wait awhile and see. They want to make sure the virus is gone, or there's a vaccine, or there's a profitable business model. Or… even worse. D) COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE If building owners and landlords lose their prime tenants (the store fronts on the bottom floor, the offices on the middle floors, the well-to-do on the top floors, etc.) then they go out of business. And what happens when they go out of business? Nothing actually. And that's the bad news. People who would have rented or bought say, "Hmmm, everyone is saying NYC is heading back to the 1970s, so even though prices might be 50% lower than they were a year ago, I think I will wait a bit more. Better safe than sorry!" And then with everyone waiting... prices go down further. So people see prices go down and they say, "Good thing I waited. But what happens if I wait even more?!" And they wait and then prices go down more. This is called a deflationary spiral. People wait. Prices go down. Nobody really wins. Because the landlords or owners go broke. Less money gets spent on the city. Nobody moves in so there is no motion in the markets. And people already owning in the area and can afford to hang on have to wait longer for a return of restaurants, services, etc. that they were used to. Well, will prices go down low enough everyone buys? Answer: Maybe. Maybe not. Some people can afford to hang on but not afford to sell. So they wait. Other people will go bankrupt and there will be litigation, which creates other problems for real estate in the area. And the big borrowers and lenders may need a bailout of some sort or face mass bankruptcy. Who knows what will happen? E) COLLEGES There are almost 600,000 college students spread out through NYC. From Columbia to NYU to Baruch, Fordham, St. John's, etc. Will they require remote learning? Will kids be on campus? It turns out: a little bit of both. Some colleges are waiting a semester to decide, some are half and half, some are optional. But we know this: There is uncertainty and there is hybrid. I don't know of any college fully coming back right away. That's OK, you might say, so in a semester or two it might be fine. (Columbia University) Not so fast. Let's say just 100,000 of those 600,000 don't return to school and decide not to rent an apartment in New York City. That's a lot of apartments that will go empty. That's a lot of landlords who will not be able to pay their own bills. Many bought those student apartments as a way to make a living. So now it ripples back to the landlords, to the support staff, to the banks, to the professors, etc. In other words, we don't know. But it's going to be a lot worse before it's better. F) OK, OK, BUT NYC ALWAYS COMES BACK Yes it does. I lived three blocks from Ground Zero on 9/11. Downtown, where I lived, was destroyed, but it came roaring back within two years. Such sadness and hardship and then quickly that area became the most attractive area in New York. And in 2008/2009, there was much suffering during the Great Recession, again much hardship, but things came roaring back. But… this time is different. You're never supposed to say that but this time it's true. If you believe this time is no different, that NYC is resilient, I hope you're right. I don't benefit from saying any of this. I love NYC. I was born there. I've lived there forever. I STILL live there. I love everything about NYC. I want 2019 back. But this time is different. One reason: Bandwidth. In 2008, average bandwidth speeds were 3 megabits per second. That's not enough for a Zoom meeting with reliable video quality. Now, it's over 20 megabits per second. That's more than enough for high-quality video. There's a before and after. BEFORE: No remote work. AFTER: Everyone can work remotely. The difference: bandwidth got faster. And that's basically it. People have left New York City and have moved completely into virtual worlds. The Time-Life Building doesn't need to fill up again. Wall Street can now stretch across every street instead of just being one building in Manhattan. We are officially AB: After Bandwidth. And for the entire history of NYC (the world) until now, we were BB: Before Bandwidth. Remote learning, remote meetings, remote offices, remote performance, remote everything. That's what is different. Everyone has spent the past five months adapting to a new lifestyle. Nobody wants to fly across the country for a two-hour meeting when you can do it just as well on Zoom. I can go see "live comedy" on Zoom. I can take classes from the best teachers in the world for almost free online as opposed to paying $70,000 a year for a limited number of teachers who may or may not be good. Everyone has choices now. You can live in the music capital of Nashville, you can live in the "next Silicon Valley" of Austin. You can live in your hometown in the middle of wherever. And you can be just as productive, make the same salary, have higher quality of life with a cheaper cost to live. G) And what would make you come back? There won't be business opportunities for years. Businesses move on. People move on. It will be cheaper for businesses to function more remotely and bandwidth is only getting faster. Wait for events and conferences and even meetings and maybe even office spaces to start happening in virtual realities once everyone is spread out from midtown Manhattan to all over the country. The quality of restaurants will start to go up in all the second- and then third-tier cities as talent and skill flow to the places that can quickly make use of them. Ditto for cultural events. And then people will ask, "Wait a second, I was paying over 16% in state and city taxes and these other states and cities have little to no taxes? And I don't have to deal with all the other headaches of NYC?" Because there are headaches in NYC. Lots of them. It's just we sweep them under the table because so much else has been good there. NYC has a $9 billion deficit. $1 billion more than the mayor thought it was going to have. How does a city pay back its debts? The main way is aid from the state. But the state deficit just went bonkers. Then is taxes. But if 900,000 estimated jobs are lost in NYC and tens of thousands of businesses, then that means less taxes unless taxes are raised. (Revenue sources for NYC are all going down but the deficit is going up) Next is tolls from the tunnels and bridges. But fewer people are commuting to work. Well, how about the city-owned colleges? Fewer people are returning to college. Well how about property taxes? More people defaulting on their properties. What reason will people have to go back to NYC? I love my life in NYC. I have friends all over NY. People I've known for decades. I could go out of my apartment and cross the street and there was my comedy club and I could go up onstage and perform. I could go a few minutes by Uber and meet with anyone or go play PingPong or go to a movie or go on a podcast and people traveling through could come on my podcast. I could go out at night to my favorite restaurants and then see my favorite performers perform. I could go to the park and play chess, see friends. I could take advantage of all this wonderful city has to offer. No more. Sincerely, James Altucher By the way, you must know by now that it is nearly a certainty that Wechat will be gone in the US. So very soon we have to communicate via other media. For DW investment group, we have set up a Telegram group. If you want to join, Here is the link for "DW  谈股论金": https://t.me/joinchat/SgYa_xNrjTNHk9cS51ke0A.     Importantly, you cannot join directly via Wechat. Two options: When open the blog in Wechat,  点击右上角的三点，然后选在Safari 中open，然后点击the link and then join  Or copy the link and paste to Safari to open and then join