On the verge of total collapse!

  妖魔鬼怪是如何在美国横行

 

看一看如今的妖魔鬼怪是如何在美国横行的：
1.?一个有着货真价实的男性性器官的真男人只要说他是女人，你绝对不能够说他不是女人而是男人，你必须睁着眼睛和他一起说他百分之百的是一个女人，你不能够禁止他进入女性厕所，你不能够阻止他在女厕所当着女人的面掏出他的男性性器官，因为他在性别认同上认为他是女人，你必须认同和支持他，否则你就会吃官司惹麻烦。
2.?在美国进行人口普查，统计有多少美国人在美国，是不符合美国精神的。
3.?俄罗斯人影响我们的选举是坏事，但非法移民在我们的选举中投票影响美国大选是好事。
5.? 美国年轻人20?岁喝啤酒太年轻违法，18?岁已经够投票决定国家政策，5-6岁小孩，更可以不需要家长同意就自己决定变性了。
6.?从未拥有过奴隶的美国人，必须向从未当过奴隶的美国人，支付奴隶赔偿金。
7.?从未上过大学的美国人，必须为那些为获得学位而借了贷款的大学生，偿还贷款债务。即使这些大学生以后工资相当多，也不需要偿还。
8.?患有肺结核和脊髓灰质炎的非法移民，艾滋病都可以畅通无阻进入美国受到欢迎，但是一个美国公民却必须能证明你的狗接种了疫苗否则你和狗都有麻烦。
9.?任何想要移民到美国的科学家和工程师，必须经过严格的审查程序，其中包括体检和提供无犯罪记录，托福考试成绩等等；但任何能够跳过美国南部边境的黑帮分子，拐卖妇女儿童分子，越狱罪犯，毒品贩子，性病患者，文盲都是受美国欢迎，并且让他们免费入住星级酒店的。
10.?50?亿美元的边境安全费用太高，但?1.5?万亿美元的“免费”医疗费用却不高。
11.?如果你作弊考上大学，你会进监狱；但如果你非法进入美国这个国家，你可以免费上大学。
12.?那些说人类没有性别之分的人，却要求选出一位女性总统。
13.?我们看到其他国家走向社会主义并崩溃，但我们依然朝着那个方向，狂奔。
14.?有些种族的人要为他们出生前发生的事情负责，而而有些种族的人则不必为他们现在所做的事情负责。
15.?犯罪是罪犯的人身权力，所以罪犯被抓获后，要释放，以方便他们继续行使他们的权力伤害更多的人；但阻止罪犯他们的权利是则是一种犯罪，因为这侵犯了罪犯他们的人身权利。抢劫偷盗900美元以下财产不是犯罪，不应该受到逮捕。
以上这些行为已经成为美国社会的潮流，成为美国的觉醒文化。
所有敢于站出来指出，揭露，批判，反对以上这些荒唐，伪善，反文明，践踏人类道德底线的行为的人都是种族主义者，性别歧视者，都是反对美国精神者，但是希特勒，法西斯。
美国人目前显然生活在一个黑白颠倒的世界里，非法者的合法，守法者的违法。对变成错，错变成对，讲道德就是不道德，不讲道德就是道德，善良就是邪恶，邪恶才是善良。
醒来吧，美利坚这艘“泰坦尼克号”已经撞上了冰山，正在进水，正在快速下沉。

 蒋大仁勇

Trump Bump: How Much Higher Can Stocks Go?

 Behind the “Trump Bump”: How Much Could Stocks Rise in 2025?

For the past two days, the stock market has benefitted nicely from the so-called "Trump Bump." 

That is, ever since Donald Trump won the 47th U.S. Presidential Election – on the premise that his pro-growth policies will benefit the U.S. economy and stock market – stocks have been taking off. 

But how big is the "Trump Bump" really? Is it enough to push stocks 2%… 5%… 10% higher? 

Well, we've looked back on the market's performance during Trump's first term in office. And in our analysis, he observed two forms of the Trump Bump. 

1. A boost for corporate earnings through more pro-growth policies and tax cuts.
2. A rise in valuations thanks to increased investor confidence in the economy. 

Clearly, those two factors are net-positive for stocks. And we see a pathway for this election-driven rally to push stocks almost 30% higher in 2025. 

Here's our math.

Higher Earnings Mean Stocks Should Keep Rising

The first form of the "Trump Bump" – higher earnings – is about a 2% to 4% boost in earnings, before considering tax cuts. That is, from November 2016 (when Trump won his first term as president) to December 2017 (the end of his first year in office), we saw 2017 and '18 earnings estimates rise about 2% and 4%, respectively. 

So, it seems Trump's pro-growth policies were good enough for a considerable rise in earnings estimates during his last term in office. We think that's achievable this time around, too. 

Meanwhile, there is talk that Trump will also reduce the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%. Goldman Sachs estimates that if he is successful at doing so, it could result in a 4% boost to earnings per share (EPS) for the S&P 500. 

In other words, the boost to earnings over the next few years will likely be a 2% to 4% bump-up from pro-growth policies and a 4% bump-up from corporate tax cuts. Altogether, that's a 6% to 8% increase in earnings estimates. 

At the midpoint, that would take the current 2026 EPS estimate for the S&P 500 of ~$303 and make it $325 by the end of next year. 

A Second Term for Trump Will Likely Boost Valuations

Now, the second bump factor – increased valuations – would be about a 10% rise in valuation multiples. 

Throughout 2016 – before Trump took office for his first term – the S&P 500 was consistently trading between 16X and 18X forward earnings. That expanded during Trump's first year in office, when the S&P consistently traded between 18X and 19X forward earnings. 

In other words, likely due to increased confidence about the economy, investors pushed up valuations by ~10% the last time Trump was elected. 

We think that's doable this time around, too. Throughout 2024, the S&P 500 has mostly bounced between trading at 20.5X and 22.5X forward earnings. And a 10% boost to that implies a ~23.5X forward earnings multiple for stocks. 

If we combine those two "Trump Bump" factors – a ~7% boost to earnings and a ~10% rise in valuations – then we're looking at 2026 estimated EPS for the S&P 500 of $325 and a 23.5X forward earnings multiple. That combination implies a 2025 target for the S&P of 7,640 – nearly 30% above where it is currently trading. 

In other words, if Trump's second term as president plays out like his first (in terms of stock market earnings and valuation impact), stocks could soar ~30% over the next 12 months.

As such, we think the investment game plan for Trump 2.0 over the next 12 to 24 months is simple: Get fully bullish right now and stay that way for as long as the market keeps trending higher. 

L. Lango

 

 

 

Emotions and Markets

The Next Four Years

This is not a political statement. This is a note where we share our personal feelings.

Like many of you, we have mixed feelings about politics and the election. Our feelings would be mixed regardless of the outcome.

Discussing our thoughts is the most productive way to move forward. It is also the best way for us to refine our process and figure out how to navigate the markets, which is our ultimate goal.

Our first feeling is one of DREAD.

To be honest, we don't like Donald Trump. His bombastic and antagonistic personality is the type we actively avoid in our personal lives, and it is also not what we would like to see in the office of the President.

We do, however, see how this type of personality could be useful in that position, especially given the types of folks we have had in that office over the last few decades.

We don't like him, but we can see how these unsavory personality traits would be useful.

Our bigger issue is that Trump is a narcissist. He cares about himself and his ego above everything else.

In real life, a couple of ten-minute conversations with him would feel like a lifetime. That would be an inconvenience but not a problem.

With him as President, though, you have to ask yourself at one point if he is making decisions for himself rather than the country.

Interestingly, we DO think the country is important to him—VERY important. We believe it is a close second to himself.

This is similar to many politicians. Perhaps the biggest difference with Trump is simply the magnitude.

Ultimately, our "dread" is less about the outcome of what is going to happen as a result of his unpleasant personality and more about having to sit through four more years of the constant noise—his rants and the media attacking him.

We are NOT looking forward to that at all.

Our second emotion is RELIEF.

While we dislike Trump as a person, we agree with many of his policies.

His first term was chaotic. We do not think he thought he would win and – as a result – wasn't prepared.

Being President and running the government is also a very different job than anything else he had ever done. It was always going to take time to figure it out.

Additionally, we think some of his appointees were not "team" players. They saw Trump as a threat to be managed instead of working to fulfill his vision and the voters' support.

Despite this terrible setup, we think the first term had very good policy results.

The economy grew nicely, investment and innovation prospered, and (importantly) global security improved significantly.

We question some of the methods to get us to the results, but the results were pretty good.

Our view is that a second Trump term will do better.

He now has a much better understanding of how everything works. He will also put in place a team that will work with him rather than against him.

The previous four years have felt like a slowly closing vice regarding economic policy and global security. It got worse slowly every day, and there wasn't much chance it was going to get better.

Like a ball rolling down a hill into a ditch, it didn't feel like it could ever roll back up.

This isn't to say that all the results will be great. The implementation method of some of these policies is tricky, and there are no easy fixes.

After a day of reflection, though, it feels like the ball has been moved off the hill and – at least for now – put on flat ground.

That brings me back to my final and most powerful emotion – HOPE.

Our readers may have heard me say this before, but I am one of the most optimistic people you will ever meet.

In order for me to survive my difficult childhood and thrive, optimism was a biological imperative. Without it, not only would I not have seen success, but I most likely would be dead or in prison.

OPTIMISM is the lifeblood of America.

If Kamala Harris had won, I would have been very optimistic about America's future. Even though it would have felt to me that we would continue to slide down several paths that I did not think were right, I was confident we would figure it out.

The worst outcome was still going to be pretty damn good.

That is an uncommon way to look at the world, but it is how I look at America. I believe in that concept fully and have seen nothing in my five decades that would lead me to doubt that outlook.

That same view exists with Trump.

My personal preference would be that we were governed differently from a personality perspective, but ultimately, I think the final outcome is not going to just be good for America. It is going to be GREAT.

I also recognize that “relief” and “hope” are the opposite of what many are feeling out there.

It is easy for our minds to go to the most negative potential outcomes. Remember that our bodies are biologically programmed to react to negative stimulus eight times more powerfully than positive stimulus. Evolution has made us pessimists.

There are many dire predictions about what will happen now with a Trump administration combined with Republican control of Congress. I don’t believe they will happen.

The most important reason I don’t believe them is because I believe in American and Americans. There are reasons these dire predictions have not played out in the past. One of those reasons is the very opposition presented by those that are worried the most.

We are the most optimistic about the next four years that we have been in a good long time. We hope we are right.

We all have an opportunity here to move forward together and continue to build “the shining city upon a hill” that is America. Enrique Abeyta