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Wednesday, September 13, 2023

Get ready for "a credit event" in the foreseeable future

Here's the latest, from Newsweek:

Americans Struggle to Get Credit Increases as Debt Surges

[Households have noticed that] access to credit has been a struggle compared to a year ago, a trend they will likely see continue going forward.

"Expectations for future credit availability also deteriorated in August, with the share of respondents expecting it will be harder to obtain credit in the year ahead increasing," the New York Fed said on Monday.

Overall, "households' perceptions about their current financial situations and expectations for the future also deteriorated."

And this from CNBC:

Fears over access to credit hit highest level in more than a decade, New York Fed survey shows

Respondents indicating that the ability to get credit is harder now than it was a year ago rose to nearly 60%, the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations for August showed.

In early August, the New York Fed reported that credit-card debt has exceeded $1 trillion for the first time ever. And on Monday, credit-reporting agency Equifax said that credit-card and car-loan defaults are now at their highest levels since the financial crisis.

You can go on and on with such kinds of credit-related depressing reports.....Sooner or later, there will be a last straw to crash the camel!
Some financial gurus with a decent track record of predicting some major financial crises like the dot.com fallout or the housing crisis are starting to warn for a "credit event" to emerge soon, maybe as early as this fall. No one knows for sure what kind of an event it will be, it can be something like a new series of bank failures...

Or maybe a crisis in an important sovereign debt market...

Or perhaps a wave of new, large bankruptcies...

Or possibly just one large company going bankrupt and wrecking a huge chunk of the bond market.

Don't be too complacent folks!

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