Reality check about how the US government has handled the COVID 19 crisis

Both Whitney Tilson and Enrique Abeyta are veteran and very successful investors but they have quite different views on how the US government has handled the COVID 19 crisis. I excerpt their recent conversations below for your information. You can judge yourself. I personally side with Abeyta's side as I do believe for this very infectious virus, it is just a matter of time to get a sizable population infected regardless of what is done. Unless an effective vaccine becomes available soon, there is no way to stay away from the virus for a prolonged period. So it is basically coming down to the tradeoff between the economy vs the public health. It is a fine balance each country has to determine how to reach.

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In response to me (Tilson) sending out this article in the NYT about Belgium, When Covid-19 Hit, Many Elderly Were Left to Die, I wrote:

 

I've finally found a country that botched the response to the virus worse than we did...

 

Enrique replied:

 

I don't think "botched the response" is at all fair or accurate. Lost the media war would be more accurate.

If you take the tri-state area out, the US ranks 16^th in mortality per million, better than all the major countries of Europe except Germany, better than the major countries of LatAm (Mexico and Brazil), better than Russia.

Asia is an anomaly (perhaps because of T-cells) but taking out NY, the US lines up very well.

 

I replied (in black) with Enrique's response (in pink):

 

1) I'm sure if you removed the hardest hit area from every other country, we'd be back to our sucky position relative to them.

 

Well our non-hardest-hit area is 85% of our population. Don't think that could be said for any of the other countries that I referenced. At worst it is a push but suspect it is far better.

 

2) With 162,000 deaths, an economic meltdown (which would have been far worse if we weren't so rich that we could afford to throw trillions of dollars at it), and a second wave/continuation of the first wave that pretty much no other country has experienced (notwithstanding the tiny flare-ups in Asia and Europe), I think it's hard to argue that our outcomes are anything but a total calamity – on both an absolute or relative basis.

 

No other country has experienced a second wave/continuation of first wave because no other country had a large area impacted and then SUCCESSFULLY shut down 85% of the country – like we did. They all got hit at once. Actually, think our outcome actually pretty good on both and absolute and relative basis – at least if we focus on the numbers and not the media.

 

3) Ironically, if your theory is correct – we should have adopted Sweden's approach – to the extent that we've done so (as you argue below), it's been BY ACCIDENT, due to our TOTAL INCOMPETENCE. For the latest evidence of this, see this WaPo article today: Prioritizing politics as thousands died: Inside the White House's summer 'disaster' of a pandemic response

 

Basically we did take Sweden's approach for the vast majority of the country and are seeing slightly better results. The one thing I do agree on here is that it was not an overt decision per se but don't honestly think there is much that could have been done better. Regardless of who was in the White House. One of the things that troubles me the most is the hubris to think that politics or governments really have all that much influence on this phenomena which is an incredibly complex natural eco-system.. When looking at all of the non-Asia and non-island or tiny countries, EVERYONE's results are kind of turning out the same. The only difference is if you had high population density and got hit early.

 

4) Serious question: I cannot think of a SINGLE THING we've done as a country in response to this pandemic that I view as better than the average country: taking the threat seriously early on; protecting the elderly and vulnerable; social distancing; closing borders; developing a strategy; communicating it clearly; ramping up testing, PPE, ventilators, contact tracing, etc., etc., etc.

 

Conversely I can think of FEW THINGS that we have done worse than the average country:

• taking the threat seriously early on On March 17 we closed 85% of the country for two months and learned very quickly from the mistakes (which weren't necessarily their fault, it just happened so quick) of the tri-state region and densely populated Europe. March 17 is pretty early.
• protecting the elderly and vulnerable Everywhere but NY protected the elderly and vulnerable.
• social distancing Mobility data demonstrates social distancing.
• closing borders We closed our borders.
• ramping up testing We have done more tests than other country on a per capita basis by 50%.
• PPE, ventilators We have EXCESS ventilators.

 

Only two of your statements really stand up in my view:

• developing a strategy; communicating it clearly It is true that there was not a clearly articulated strategy being driven by a central party BUT that is not our system, is it? EUROPE as a whole didn't have a single strategy and neither did we. Each state took on a strategy that was based on some common ideas sort of like individual European countries.
• contact tracing Our contract tracing is also non-existent but think it is pointless anyway.

 

Net-net I don't really know how you can argue with our mortality per capita. The numbers are clearly above average.

 

Last think I will say is that if we had a different administration, I think we would have EXACTLY the same results. If it was all politics, why do BY FAR the worst results exist in the reddest states in the country – NY, NJ and CT.

 

This has been – and continues to be – much bigger than politics. Again, it is hubris to think humanity can have more than a little influence on such a complex natural interaction…

 

Honestly don't give a damn about politics in any of this. The only political aspect of this is that BOTH sides have been focusing on politics and posturing versus each other versus the actual data and that is resulting in unfortunate policy distortions and actions that we will regret later. Both sides are EQUALLY guilty of this…