COVID 19 case study in Japan

Since the COVID 19 pandemic is such a global disaster, I'd like to share whatever useful information here as well when available.

Here is the Japanese experience up to date which should be good information to know. It is written by Jeff Brown, a respectful successful investor as well. 

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Today, let's have a look at my "adopted" country, Japan, and COVID-19. Its unique characteristics make it a fascinating case study for the pandemic.

I lived in Japan for nearly 20 years as a corporate high-tech executive, running large businesses there and throughout the Asia Pacific region. It was an amazing experience that had a profound impact on my own personal and professional development.

I've worked in and traveled to more than 65 countries, and I know of no place on earth that is more civil, organized, and compliant to government direction.

Remember that it isn't unusual to wear masks when we are sick in Japan in order to avoid the spread of the illness. But we don't wear masks because we are scared of becoming infected by something. Many foreigners misunderstand this when visiting Japan for the first time.

Of course, since the pandemic began, the government directed everyone to wear a mask, and Japan's society complied.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has said masks prevent the spread of COVID-19. But rather than accepting that at face value, let's look at what happened in Japan.

Since everyone has been wearing a mask since the beginning of the outbreak, we might expect there to be little to no COVID-19 in the country, right?

Wrong.

Japan experienced an initial outbreak between March and May, similar to many countries in the northern hemisphere, with a corresponding dip upon entering June. Japan did close down its schools several weeks in advance of its April break, but otherwise much of the country went about its own business… masks and all.

It appeared that the virus had run its course, which the Western world attributed to the compliance of wearing masks.

And then, in early July, the new cases came back with a vengeance, peaking about a week ago. What happened?

In short, the masks clearly didn't stop the spread of COVID-19.

And how about Japan's COVID-19-related deaths?

The impact has been minuscule. During July and August, there were rarely more than five deaths a day from COVID-19. On some days, there have been none.

Since July 1 in Japan, there have been more than 30,000 new cases of COVID-19. But almost all of the 80 deaths during that time involved underlying health conditions and higher risk due to age.

That amounts to a fatality rate of 0.26%. And remember, that rate doesn't include asymptomatic (symptom-free) cases. The actual fatality rate would be a small fraction of that number if those cases were included.

Why is the fatality rate so small? There are two primary reasons.

First, Japan's health care system learned a lot about how to treat COVID-19 patients during the first wave of COVID-19 (March through May). This prepared the country's system to deal with its much larger outbreak this summer.

And second, Japan is only counting deaths directly attributable to COVID-19, unlike the U.S.

Some recent COVID-19 "deaths" from just one county in Florida include:

• A 90-year-old man who fell and died from complications of a hip fracture

• A 77-year-old woman who died of Parkinson's disease

• A 60-year-old man who died of a gunshot wound

In fact, a recent news report that examined 581 "deaths" from COVID-19 in Palm Beach County, FL, determined that only 169 did not have comorbidities. That's only 29% of the total.

And this problem of reporting COVID-19 "deaths" exists across the U.S.

Japan provides us with a far more accurate picture of what is really going on with COVID-19. And it demonstrates how, regardless of masks, an airborne virus like COVID-19 will likely continue to spread until we reach a state of herd immunity.

Even New Zealand, which went 102 days without a new case of COVID-19, has just identified four new cases in a family that didn't travel anywhere.

But COVID-19 didn't go into hiding during those 102 days. It was simply spreading slowly – probably asymptomatically – throughout the country during that time.

We can slow down the spread at great cost to economic and personal life, but we cannot stop the spread entirely. COVID-19 is going to do what it does best… spread.