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Monday, April 30, 2018

The dollar king is bouncing as expected

I have been talking down US$ since early last year and it has been almost a waterfall since then. After a year falling, the dollar king has lost all its attraction and the sentiment had become universally bearish by Jan this year. As you know, I don't like popularity and crowdedness for any trades. That's when I called for a bottom of the dollar king and suggested a turning point was coming (see here). That was indeed a spot on call. Since then, US$ has been bottoming for almost two months and then suddenly it started an explosive breakout in the past week. Does this mean US$ has reached its ultimate bottom and will start a new sustainable bull run? I'm not convinced. I still believe US$ is in a secular downtrend that will last for many years. The big picture is still quite bearish for US$. But as I have repeatedly said, no trend is a straight line regardless up or down. No difference for US$. I still believe this is just a dead cat bounce for US$ although at the current moment, it is quite bullish technically and this bounce may likely continue for a while. In the immediate term, it is very overbought and is due for a decline in the next few days. But the decline, if so, is likely short-lived and it should find its support around $90ish and then resume its next leg up. It is quite possible that it will shoot up towards the next major resistance around $94-95 before starting to fall again. Of course, we will know better when it gets there based on the herd sentiment whether the dead cat bounce has finally run its course. For now, staying long with US$ is the right course of action!



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