I have talked about Treasury numerous times. The most recent one was to reemphasize my view that Treasury bonds have more to go up although in the near term, it could come down to take a rest. Here is what I said just two weeks ago: When the rally will stop? I don't know but I'd think this rally will last for at least some weeks, until we start to see dumb money becomes bullish again on Treasury.
One caveat thought about TLT. It is challenging its major resistance at the moment, the 50 DMA. More often than not, it may not be able to break out such a strong resistance at one attempt. Technically we could see TLT decline a bit in the next few sessions to rest a bit before mounting another attempt to break out. I won't be surprised TLT comes down to test its support around $120 in the very near term.
This seems to be a perfect script for TLT, an ETF for long term government bonds. TLT has indeed come down to kiss its support 120 and a bit lower actually. I think this mini correction for it has almost completed, if not yet done. Per the weekly COT report, smart money is still betting for more upside of Treasury and I think TLT has much more upside to go. Don't give it up just yet!!
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