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Sunday, August 14, 2016

I don't like the price actions of gold

I have been expecting for a sizable correction of gold and silver for some time but there has never been any significant correction since the bull run started early this year. Yes, there are some price fluctuations of gold but whenever there is a dip, buyers are coming in to hold it up. A really very strong uptrend that for sure will last for years! But am I ready to give up my cautious view for the short-term correction of gold/silver? Not yet. I still think the risk for a sizable correction is quite high and can happen any moment. I have been reminded again and again that the technical analysis for gold is not that much useful, given we are constantly seeing black swans that may be flying out from any part of the world to scare people around. I got the point but I'm just stubbornly thinking that the current technical setup for gold is not bullish at all, or even quite bearish in the near term. The price actions of gold in the past couple of weeks are really weak, to say the least!


Having said that and while I have been wrong to date about the meaningful correction of gold, it does not mean I'm simply sitting at sideline to wait for a possible correction to come. On the contrary, I'm still very active in trading gold stocks by taking advantage of its price fluctuations. As I said before, in the current situation with side way range bounded price movement for gold, the best way to trade is to use covered calls. For those good at options, I'm even adding naked puts to juice up my profit potentials. With both covered calls and naked puts, I can enjoy whichever direction gold decides to go. For example, for a few months, I have been trading the leveraged gold stock ETF, NUGT via its weekly options. This is a crazily volatile ETF that can easily move 10% up or down within a day or two. But such kind of moves are good for trading as long as one knows how to manage out-of-the-range moves. It is certainly not for everyone, especially not for those with a faint heart. But I enjoy the incomes I have obtained from it. Eventually this synthetic option strategy can help to build up some long term positions when gold clears its overhead hurdles and be ready to go up sustainably. Regardless how I feel about gold in the short term and whether or not I'm right or wrong, gold treats me very well. I love gold unconditionally!!

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