Total Pageviews

Friday, April 8, 2016

I'm sure I will be laughed at....


 The US market has mounted an amazingly impressive bounce in the past month. We probably have never seen this kind of fast 14% jump within a month time period. But I think the party may likely be over by now. As impressive as it has been, the market is still in a decisive downtrend. It has tried several times to break out the downward trend line but failed. Now we are seeing less and less energy and momentum to support its attempting going further higher: while it has tried to move higher and higher, its momentum indicator MACD is drafting down, creating a negative divergence. This is often an early sign of a changing trend direction. Together with virtually all of the technical indicators pointing to an extreme overbought condition for the market, I think the chance is very high that stocks may start soon, if not yet already started, a multi weeks of down drafting. In the last few sessions, we are starting to see a low highs low lows downward trend in developing. Watch your downside now!

In contrary to the bearish US market, I think one bright spot emerging is....(are you sitting tight to hear what is coming?): the Chinese stocks! I'm sure you almost fall when hearing me saying this. But don't be too fast to laugh at me. I know it is probably the most hated market right now and people may want to vomit to even think about buying Chinese stocks. But as a contrarian trader, this is the right setup for things to turn around. Of course sentiment alone is not sufficient for me to be interested in it but the technical indicators are all lining up for a bullish case for China. As you can see below in the SSEC chart (Shanghai stock index), it is just breaking out its downtrend with the 9 DMA cross above the 50 DMA, a golden cross. It hit its bottom end of Jan and then by end of Feb it retested its bottom but with a positive divergence in its momentum MACD. If I'm right, I think SSEC may move up toward 3500 area in the next few weeks. Of course there is no guarantee and the Chinese market is notoriously unpredictable. But as a speculation idea, this one may be a good bet at the moment.

No comments:

Post a Comment