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Friday, February 19, 2016

Gold is in a parabolic move short term

I love gold and I'm convinced we will see gold in thousands of dollars in my life time! Two weeks ago, I posted a blog detailing why I think gold is a great asset to own. With what happening around the world by the central banks and governments, gold will become more and more of a safe heaven for sure. The recent move by gold is an epitome of how a safe heaven looks like when people are nervous and uncertain about their fiat money's value. So is it the time to back up tracks to load on gold? I'm not sure. Actually I think gold is in a dangerous parabolic move that people are chasing it due to worry about being left behind. This kind of panic buy is typically seen at a peak. Let's step back and review the recent history of gold rallies in the past 3 years. At the moment, gold has gone up about 15% in less than 2 months. If you check the gold prices in the past 3 years, there were 3 more similar rallies with a gain over 10%, ranging from 13% to 19%. Each time, as reported by COT (Commitment of Traders) the commercial traders (the smart money as they are the ones really know when to buy or sell gold, such as gold mining or royal companies) were selling gold when the public were buying. Then the gold peaked each time, the short interests (selling orders) of such smart money usually went up to 100K or more. Right now, the short interests have also reached the 100K level. This is a very powerful indicator that gold will likely run out of gas with this move. Now, let's also look at the chart of gold (GLD). Same story that gold is very much overbought per RSI and it is also showing a bearish double top pattern. I think gold has peaked near term and will come down soon to test its support. The most likely target should be around its 50 day MA ($1150ish) in the next few weeks. That will be a great time to buy for long term.


 

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