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Saturday, December 13, 2014

We are getting to a major bottom

I heard from CNBC yesterday that the market had the worst week since 2002. Yes, anyone who watches the market closely is certainly feeling the pain about the relentless decline of stocks day after day. As I said, the market is a bipolar animal, meaning its mood can change quickly just like a teenage girl. Just a few weeks ago, everyone seems supper bullish and the market just kept going up and up. Then all the sudden, it has become extremely depressed and keep going down and down. But everything has an end. I think we are getting very close to the bottom for this time but it may still take a few sessions with some volatility. How could I be so confident to call a bottom? Well, you have heard me talking a lot of volatility index, VIX. When it is up over 20, it is usually suggesting some panic in the market and very depressed mood for investors. This is often the contrarian indicator for a turn of the market. In the past 2 years as shown below, when the VIX average (green line) is high with a +2 standard deviation (SD) from its mean (red cycle), each time it lined up perfectly with the bottom of the market (S&P 500 in black). The VIX is over 20 now with a +2 SD. Next week starts the a very bullish season for the market as well. I think there is a good chance that you may see a jump of stocks soon. If you want to enjoy the overall market increase, you may buy SSO. I'm confident, SSO will be a lot higher toward the end of the year.

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