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Friday, September 26, 2014

Be ready to short US$

Exactly one month ago, I suggested to short Euro via EUO. If you followed my advice, then you should be happy to see that you will have made about 8% in just a few weeks. Believe or not, this is equivalent to an annualized return of 96%! Take it and run. While it may not sound a lot that Euro (FXE) "just" dropped about 4% in a month, this is an enormous move for a major currency in such a short period of time. Now the sentiment is extremely bearish for Euro and conversely extremely bullish for US$. This is also reflected in the price action for EUO, which is clearly overbought. When the sentiment become extreme in anything, you got to take the contrary action. Although I still think Euro has a lot more to drop in the long run, in the near future, Euro will likely bounce back, a dead cat bounce! I'd sell EUO to take the profit and be ready to short US$. It has just too much euphoria on it at the moment and it is never a good thing from a trading perspective. I will tell you when the time is right to short US$ and how to do it. It is close but not just yet.

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