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Tuesday, October 8, 2013

Expect a violent market rally tomorrow

I cannot help but write a few words tonight. I think there is a good chance that the market will have a strong rally tomorrow. You see, the market has kept falling for over a week, more intensified lately due to the ongoing depressing government shutdown saga. The fear index, the volatility index (VIX) has jumped over 40% in the past few days to 20, a level not seen for half a year. The extremely bearish sentiment usually leads to a sudden reversal of the market. And there is potentially a great catalyst for the rally: the release of the September Fed minutes. This could be the good excuse for those who want to buy. After all, the Fed will not taper the QE and all the closed door talk within the Fed meeting 3 weeks ago could be interpreted as a good boost to the economy. At the end of the day, when the rubber band is stretched too much, it will snap back, although I don't think the rally will be long lived.

If you can watch the market actively tomorrow and ideally if the market goes down first at the opening, it would be a great trading opportunity to bet for a quick rally towards the closing. Buying SSO will be a great play for the short-lived rally.

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