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Sunday, June 17, 2012

What’s to expect in the next few weeks?

Well, today's is the D day for the Eurozone countries, since the Greek election will largely determine whether there will be an immediate collapse or crisis facing them. In reality nothing will immediately happen but at least this is how it is perceived for its impact. All the evidence indicates though that the Greek people at large don't want to leave the Eurozone although they really hate the austerity plan. I think the election result will give such an impression that Greece will stay and the Euro will not break up immediately. Everyone will be deeply relieved and the market will view this as a huge positive. While the can is kicked further down the road and the crisis will become even bigger and worse later, no one wants to face the reality now. It is the problem of future leaders and politicians, not today's.

As I said recently, I had a hunch that the overall market would likely be doing well in the near short-term. Therefore I have put in some money with SSO (2 x leverage) and TNA (3 x leverage) to speculate this idea of a short term market rally. I’m still thinking this will likely play out as I predicted that the overall market will be advancing up for the next few weeks, especially if the Fed is doing or at least hinting that they will start to further stimulate the economy at their meeting next week. The obvious initial significant resistance for S&P will be around 1370-90. At the current level around 1340, it is not too late to take some speculative positions if you are also convinced with this near term trend. But be aware that this is highly speculative and very risky. If we indeed go up & over 1370 luckily, I will be thinking to take the money off the table to be ready for the next leg down. I think this market correction is not over yet and another test of the May low will follow the current short lived uptrend. Only after that, the market will be ready for a more sustainable rally towards the year end. Simply accumulating more cash is also a good strategy to be ready to join a more solid and significant market rally.

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