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Sunday, June 5, 2011

Why is NLY doing well, while the whole economy is terrible?


On Jan 6, 2011, I wrote about Annaly (NLY). Here is what I said: this stock is fundamentally not related to the stock market but to the Fed rate. As long as the Fed rate remains low, it will make money and distribute dividends in a huge amount.
As you may have noticed, the overall market is really not doing well recently. The Friday's economy news was especially poor with a significantly anemic new job creation number associated with an increasing unemployment rate. It is just bad and understandably the market did not like it and was dropping. So what did NLY do in such a grave market? You should not be surprised if you understand what I told you before: it's appreciating against the overall depreciating market. Why is that? Because the poor the economy is doing, the less chance Benanake will dare to raise the Fed rate any time soon. The market just knows this perfectly and has discounted that. When Annaly enjoys the extremely low fund borrowing rate, its profit margin is kept large; so the dividends you are getting, which are almost at 14%. 

I hope you did have bought some shares of NLY early this year, with which you have not only got a huge dividend payment, but also some capital gain along with the stock appreciation. Do I recommend to buy more shares of NLY at the moment? I'm reluctant. Although I think it is very safe to bet that there won't be a chance to see a Fed rate hike this year, the stock has very limited room for its price appreciation. It is very likely it will fluctuate within a tight range. At this relatively high price level, one may see some capital loss, although the loss will more than enough be offset by the huge dividend yield.

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