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Friday, May 8, 2020

Either way it is bearish

Last night I noticed something interesting, which made me think that regardless how the market would be doing today, it would be bearish! It is the VIX chart that is sending some signal that a pop in the volatility is imminent, which is nearly always associated with a downdraft of the stock market. Here is the chart of the VIX after today's closing:

Last evening, I noticed that VIX was sitting right at its lower BB. Then there are only two scenarios to follow: either VIX jumps immediately or it goes down further to below its BB and then pops. Either way, it will send some panic wave to the market seemingly out of the blue. I believe I have talked about this before that VIX has rarely closed below its BB, probably once or twice a year. Whenever that happens, it will jumps higher very soon. There is no way to know how high it will go in advance but usually meaningful that will cause some pain for the stocks. See the green allows; the recent two times when VIX was close to its BB, it jumped and S&P plunged for over 100 points each time. This time, VIX has closed below BB today. To me the signal is very clear that the volatility is ready to rocket high probably in a few days at most. So fasten your seat belt as it won't be smooth!😗😵 
In addition, it seems to me that the current setup is quite similar to that about a year ago (see the pink circle) just before a huge quantum leap of VIX. Not necessarily immediately like next week but in the next few weeks, I think this is something likely coming. After all, we are in the "Go Away" period but I have started to sense the euphoric mood building up now. A perfect setup for a sudden and surprising volatility attack!

Considered being warned!!😷😎  

4 comments:

  1. technically, I agree with you 100%. But the change of sentiment needs some trigger which nobody anticipates......

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