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Sunday, October 22, 2017

A revenge of the US dollar is coming?

The US$ has not had a good time this year and has lost its value over 10% in less than a year, a rather significant weakness for any major currency. As I said, I think this year's weakness for US$ may be a major trend change for it and may last for several years. But nothing goes in a straight line either direction. About a month ago, I noticed that US$ appeared to be forming a bottom. Checking back now, it seems more clear that it is indeed bottomed for now. It is showing a textbook inverse Head & Shoulder pattern, a bullish setup often leading to an upward breakout. If it can decisively break out the resistance around $94, very likely it may go up to challenge its next major resistance at the 200 DMA around $97. If this happens, some pain will be felt for other currencies, mainly Euro, Canadian $ and Aussie $. As of now, you may want to short Euro, e.g. buying EUO, an inverse ETF against Euro. It is too early to call when this US$ revenge will end but I think it will likely stops around its 200 DMA and resumes its next leg down again. I still believe it is a multi-year's downtrend for US$ but at the moment it is just taking a breath.



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