You rarely see such a bullish indicator

In contrast to my concern on a correction of the market that may occur soon, there is one area I'm increasingly bullish at least in the short term. I talked about this idea a couple of weeks ago, that is going long for Treasury bonds. I know it hasn't worked out as I was expecting but I think it will soon. Apart from the increasing technical strength Treasury is showing, another major bullish indicator is coming from the "smart money", the commercial traders who are often at the right side of their bet. While Treasury bonds have been relentlessly beaten up for over a month now and all the speculating traders (the dumb money) are supper bearish betting for continuing uptrend of the long-term interest rates, the commercial money has rarely shown an extremely high quantity of long positions for Treasury per the COT report. More often than not, the smart money usually wins in the battle. I think this time it will be the same as well. I'm still in the long position for Treasury bonds, at least for the near term.

How long will Trump rally continue?

Merry Christmas & Happy New Year

This is the Christmas weekend. So I will be brief. Since Trump got elected, the market has rallied over 10% non stop. It seems everyone is super bullish now, a drastic changed mood compared with that prior to the election. So the question is how long this Trump rally will continue. I bet it won't last too long!

Of course I know we are at the seasonally bullish period towards the year end, a Santa Claus rally that seems always coming every year. I won't bet for any meaningful decline in the next week. If anything, chance is high that the market may want to go up further to make everyone happy. Dow Jones is flirting around the historical 20000 level that will likely be taken out before we close the year. But I will be very cautious for the first few weeks or months in the new year due to 2 reasons:

• While typically what fund managers often do at this time is so called "window dressing" in order to juice up their performance that keeps up the buying pressure, one unique reason this year is probably also related to the Trump win. Everyone is now expecting a significant tax cut under the Trump's presidency that could occur next year. As such, taking profits now may mean paying higher tax than next year. Therefore, some selloffs may start soon after we move into the new year, especially among those who are already itching to sell to lock in the good profits.
• The more concerning indicator for a meaningful correction is again related to the overwhelmingly bullish sentiment. You are hardly hearing anyone talking about downside risk now but rather almost everyone is supper euphoric with everyday new highs occurring. The inflow of funds into equity ETFs, a good indicator for measuring the investors sentiment, is at the historically high level, meaning people are pouring money into stocks now. When such kind of extreme sentiment occurs, a turning point is often not far away.

If you are thinking to buy more at the moment, just be aware of the grave risk of some sudden correction that may occur any time.

 

Don’t fall in love with Russia

By now I guess everyone knows the drama about Trump’s campaign with his view about Russia and Putin. In a drastic contrast to the attitude of Obama and H Clinton who treat Russia as a pure enemy, Trump has a more friendly attitude towards Putin. Needless to say, since Trump’s win, people have suddenly started to chase Russian stocks. The ETF for Russian stocks, RSX, has jumped about 20% since early Nov.

Actually long before the election, technically and fundamentally RSX has already poised to go up as I have suggested. Even though the Russia’s market is by no means safe, it was simply too cheap to ignore and its technical pattern has already suggested a good up run for many months. Congrats if you listened to me and bought RSX. But I have to caution you that don’t be too complacent. After all, Russia is still a risky market. Right now it is experiencing a honeymoon with Trump but it won’t be a smooth line up. While it is still fundamentally cheap, technically it is quite overbought and is due for a quick correction any time now. When that happens, it could be fast and drastic as well.

Taking some chips off the table to lock in some profits is a wise action I can advise. Treat it as an early Christmas gift from Trump and Putin’s political honeymoon!!

Go long with Alexion

Alexion (ALXN) is one of the most successful biotech companies and has been a Wall Street darling for years. As the result, it has been pushed up to a valuation unbelievably expensive and at its peak, become one of the ten most expensive stocks cross the board! Its P/E at peak was ridiculously high over 150. Needless to say, people holding its shares were happy and were still willing to chase it regardless how expensive it was. That’s typically a herd behavior that they feel great when something is hot and loved by everyone but that’s exactly the most dangerous time for savvy investors. In the end, we have to face reality as anything, even flying up to the moon, will have to come back to earth. Early this year when ALXN was pushed to its all time high around 200, I shorted it and was expecting it would come down probably to 125. Looks like the technical analysis prevails this time as ALXN has been struggling all year around and in last few days, it plunged another 20% or so to $110ish. So it has lost close to 50% of its market cap from its peak, a rather severe pain for anyone chasing it when it was hot! Now we start to see the opposite sentiment at the moment as people are just dumping the stock to run away from it. Again, when the herd is scared and dumping, it is usually the time to think about buying as contrarian. I think ALXN looks quite attractive technically now. Don’t get me wrong as ALXN is still not really cheap but compared to its 150 P/E, it is really reasonable now with a forward P/E of 19. Some analyst has estimated that per the company’s key product, Soliris sales for the treatment of paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria and atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome, its share price should be around $115. So fundamentally ALXN may be a bit discounted already. The company is also developing its next-generation Soliris, ALXN1210. The prospect appears encouraging as the drug has a seemingly better profile with less frequent dosing vs. Soliris. If successful, it may very well replace Soliris to beat the generic competition starting in 2021.

So based on the technicals and fundamentals, I’m willing to bet for an upside run for ALXN in the next few months at least. I entered my positions already a few days ago and it indeed recovered a bit by now. It may still struggle for a while in the very near term but I think it is at its bottom for this round of correction.

A unusual positive catalyst for gold

Gold has been under great pressure in the past few months and we start to hear the doubts whether gold can hold up and continue to go up. This kind of depressing sentiment is by itself bullish for gold for the long term. You don’t see people feeling depressed or desperate when something is chasing by everyone but only when it is at its bottom when no one wants it. As I said, I’m a supper bull for gold for long term and I have laid out the fundamental reasons for it. Another potentially very positive development is a Change in Islam's Sharia Law that is planned on Dec 30, which may open up an enormous new demand for gold by Muslims. But today, I will lay out another potential positive catalyst for gold that you probably have never thought about. That’s the Trump effect.

Yes, Trump’s economic initiatives, if implemented, will be very much positive to the US economy, which could mean much higher inflation as the bond market has already started to reflect. A high inflation is generally positive for gold. But I’m not talking about this. What’s I’m talking about is Trump’s unpredictable temptation and his non-politician naïve experience in the world diplomacy. Let’s face it. Trump is a businessman, not a politician. He is used to deal with things using a businessman’s mindset. It works in the business world but he has not yet realized that now his counterparties around the world are the professional politicians and they will not follow his business mindset in dealing with state affairs and international relationship. We have and are still witnessing the developing drama related to his phone conversation with Mrs Cai, the Twain leader and follow up Twitting from him. Using his business mindset, it seems very logic to him to create some challenges for the opponent that could increase his barging power later. What he does not understand is that there is no bargain when dealing with sovereignty issues, especially with the Chinese leaders. The Twain issue is the most sensitive issue for China, for which no one can break the red line without severe consequences. Trump may think if he plays hard as his business negotiation, China will step back. No way! If he does not learn this quickly and still tries to push China too hard on this, it may very likely trigger a military confrontation he will regret to have caused. If you know some history regarding US-Soviet relationship, you must know there was a nuclear crisis, so-called Cuba missile crisis that put the world on the verge of the third world war. Think about a scenario: Trump continues to have governmental contact with Twain, an absolute taboo for China and China will likely announce to take military actions targeting Twain. This kind of confrontation will easily trigger a worldwide diplomatic crisis and who will be the beneficiary? Certainly gold! Of course, this is just an extreme example and I’m not suggesting it will happen. I’m sure Trump will quickly learn when he starts his presidency. But we may still very likely see many such kind of incidents during Trump presidency that may cause many tensions between the US and other countries, certainly not limited to China only.

I like Trump’s business acumen that may be very beneficial to the US economy but I’m not sure how fast he can learn about effectively dealing with diplomatic relationship with other countries with better controlled temptation and tendency to speak up his mind without constraint. It is a real possibility that his “Do as he pleases” (随心所欲)type of way may trigger many scary crises in dealing with other countries. That in a way will be very positive to gold!

A gambling ticket for Biogen at the moment

Biogen (BIIB), one of the most successful biotech companies, has been struggling for over a year. Since reaching its all time high around $475 early 2015, it has lost almost 40% of its market cap and is trading around $290 as I’m writing. The most recent hit was related to the total failure of the Eli Lily’s Alzheimer drug, solanezumab, as it did not beat the placebo in a key study just reported. Biogen also has an AD drug under testing and people are scared that it may face a similar death blow.  But people may not understand the key difference between the 2 drugs. For Eli Lily, its drug is targeting to soluble beta-amyloid, trying to prevent formation of amyloid plagues in the brain. So it is an indirect way for AD. On the contrary, Biogen’s drug (aducanumab) is directly targeting the formed amyloid plagues in the brain, trying to reduce them. Earlier studies have shown that aducanumab is efficacious with a dose effect. A dose effect is often a sign that the drug is working but the question is at what dose with what safety profile. With the study is still ongoing, there is no way to know for sure about its result. A drug can be very effective but if too toxic, it can also be killed. That’s the risk for betting on biotech stocks. So the question is how to play with it at the moment. Short BIIB? Or long? I’d advise you to wait till next week to decide how to play with it.

Fundamentally BIIB is an enormously profitable company and is actually quite cheap at this price. I actually like BIIB for long term. But technically it is sitting at a multiyear support around $290. Shorting a stock on a strong support is risky by itself. But if it breaks, it may go down straight to its next strong support around $250. I don’t think it will easily break the current strong support easily but it may change in just a few days. A huge catalyst is set to move BIIB one way or the other. Biogen is scheduled to announce the early reading of its ongoing study for aducanumab on the coming Friday at  the 9^th Clinical Trials on Alzheimer's Disease (CTAD) meeting in San Diego. If good, it will shoot up easily over $300. If bad, it may tank as well. So it is a gambling ticket at the moment if you want to play now.

As alluded to above, personally I like BIIB very much for long term and actually I have already established my positions several months ago. Again, biotech stocks are risky and I don’t play with it naked. With hedged call options and selling puts half year ago, I have already taken enough profits to cover my cost for long calls and a bit more. So it’s a free and already profitable play for me and right now my positions are gearing towards long side than short side as I do feel Biogen’s AD drug has a better chance to win. But we have to see what will come out Friday. Stay tuned!

It is deadly scary

Not sure if anyone has also noticed but every time I drive around, I cannot help but notice the sign “Vacancy available” or “Space available for rent”, which becomes more and more along the streets or roads that are good for retail business. With the fast advancing of the new technology facilitating for online retail sales, people are more and more willing to go shopping online than to malls or stores. This is an irreversible trend that will only become more and more pronounced. With the virtual reality technology becoming more mature, online shopping will be even more close to the real life experience in the physical store. In a few years from now, it is not unthinkable that the majority of sales will be conducted online and it will be a rare thing that people will have to go to stores to buy something. In other words, those owners holding commercial properties will be more and more struggling to fight for survival. This is a dire trend for commercial real estate that is doomed to slowly die. Shorting this sector for long term is likely profitable. If you are not convinced, just look at here. Purely depressing!!

One trust fund (REIT), Simon Property Group (SPG) is a specialized fund for commercial properties. Per its description, SPG is an equity real estate investment trust. The firm invests in the real estate markets across the globe. It engages in investment, ownership, management, and development of properties. It primarily invests in regional malls, premium outlets, mills, and community/lifestyle centers to create its portfolio.  Since peaked in Aug, SPG has crashed over 20% and is trading hands around $180. At the moment, it is a bit oversold but I think the downtrend will continue with the overall dying sector looming after it recovers a bit from this level. One strategy to short SPG is to buy its long term (LEAP) put options. You don’t lose much if it simplycontinues to go up but may be quite profitable if it indeed starts to crack and go down hard in the next year or two. Another way to trade for this trend is to short JCP, a retail store that will likely disappear in a few years. It has already recovered some since early November and it may continue to try to pop up a bit in the coming shopping season. But at most it may go up probably to around $10 and at that level, it will be a great long-term short. The whole sector is on the death roll with mounting debts soon come due for refinancing but they simply don’t have any earning power to service the debts. The inevitable increasing of interest rates will only accelerate the dying process for them.

At least stay away from them, folks!  

Have I lost faith in JUNO?

Juno got another hit recently as two more deaths occurred in a pivotal clinical trial that was put on hold by the FDA just a couple of months ago and now they’ve volunteered to hold the trial again. A huge setback for sure for Juno! Since I have been “promoting” JUNO before, the obvious question is whether I have lost faith in Juno now. NO, that’s my short answer!

Don’t call me pigheaded too quickly before seeing why and how I’m playing with JUNO. As I have explained before, there is a unique aspect regarding cancer drug development. You can see it here. But briefly while fatality can easily kill most of drugs in development, it is a very common toxicity that can be accepted for cancer drugs, as long as it is in the right ratio related to efficacy. Overall I haven’t seen any meaningful new development that will change my mind regarding the effectiveness of CAR-T therapy. As I said, if the general efficacy of this new therapy is questionable, I’ll certainly change my mind and run away from it. Apparently there is something wrong with Juno’s trial which could be for example the study population not suitable for the treatment regimen, or the wrong combo agents involved, or something not sufficient in monitoring that couldn’t identify the signs/symptoms causing brain edema early enough. I’m pretty sure the company is very busy in trying to identify the real issues and come up with the targeted risk minimization activities that could help control the fatality risk. This is just the normal part of drug development for any drugs and more so for cancer drugs that are always associated with more serious toxicities. Let me give you two examples that I know very well. Heard about ipilimumab (Yervoy)? This is the historical minestrone drug that was first ever approved in the world for melanoma as a grandfather immune-oncologic therapy. But simply check its product information. Yervoy can cause deadly toxicity such as GI perforation or liver failure. Such kind of deaths were already occurring during its clinical development and its clinical trial was also put on hold as well. Then panobinostat (Farydak) for multiple myeloma. This drug was also put on clinical trial hold during development and was even in a need to be discussed at ODAC, the famous FDA public advisory committee during the submission process. If you reviewed the public information from the pivotal trial, its mortality (death rate) for the active arm was even higher than the comparative arm. Actually ODAC had advised FDA not to approve the drug but at the end, the drug got approved! Why? Because the drug was definitely showing efficacy and MM patients are desperate for new treatment options when facing inevitable death. I bet we may likely see a similar situation for JUNO as long as they can come up with some good management strategy in the context of an effective therapy.

But I don’t want to leave you with an impression that I seem to know something that gives me enough confidence to believe that Juno will for sure succeed in its drugs. No I don’t and as with any biotech stocks, the risk is very high and there is no guarantee whatsoever. So let me be very clear that I’m not betting on Juno with certainty and it may turn out that I’m totally wrong. But till now, I still hold enough confidence to continue to bet on it. Actually I’m using a unique way with call spreads to bet on such a high risk biotech stock with a goal to substantially minimize my downside risk but with unlimited upside potential. As of now with a few adjustments along the way, I have taken more gains from the short arm that is much more than the premium that I paid for the long arm. In other words, even if Juno goes down to zero, I’m for sure having some profits already (about 20% minimal profit). But if Juno can survive the setback and regain its footing on the therapy which I’m betting on, my upside potential is unlimited. I’m holding 2018 call options now for free and worry-free for the bet.

How will gold be traded next Monday?

It is potentially a black swan but amazingly the market has simply ignored it till now. We are going to witness another major referendum in Europe on the coming Sunday, Dec 4. Italians will cast their vote to decide if they want to keep the current government (pro EU), or not. If the latter, the current government will step down and likely the extreme leftism party will come into power that will push for an Itaxit. As such, the Euro zone may likely be dissolved soon. Sounds like a very serious threat to EU but no one seems to care about it. Maybe the market has seen too many such drama this year and is tired of reacting to it?




I of course don't know what the referendum will be but I'm trying to hypothesize how the market, especially gold, will react to the result. After some mind exercises, I come to the conclusion that gold will likely respond positively to either result. Why? Well, my rationing is simple: if the result is yes to support the current government, then the threat to EU is gong and likely Euro will rally. A rallying Euro will weaken US$, which should be good for gold at least in the short term. On the contrary, if the result is NO and EU may be facing a risk of dismantle, it should be a huge risk for the whole financial world and I think gold should be even more a safety heaven on such a highly uncertain situation.


Technically gold appears to be in a bottoming process and can start to run higher soon if not immediately. The Italian referendum may provide an excuse for it to start its next leg up. Let's see if my theory will come true in a few days.