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Sunday, October 14, 2012

Buy HongKong stocks to get onto the Bernanke bubble train

The way Bernanke is doing to print money unlimitedly will turn all assets into huge bubbles. No question about it. It is not whether but just when. That's why everyone should buy gold and silver as part of their investment portfolio. In addition to that, I have got an idea to catch up the bubble train via stocks, the HongKong stocks. Why so? This is because the unique feature involving the HongKong dollars (HK$).

Not sure if everyone knows that HongKong has pegged its currency to the US$, i.e. the HK$'s exchange rate with the US$ is fixed, which is up and down consistent with the US$ value. In other words, the H$ is not valued based on the HongKong economic conditions but rather it is purely determined by what the US Fed wants to do. Right now, the US economy is in a big mess and its inflation appears to be quite tamed due to very slow economic activities. But this is not the case in HongKong, which is actually economically doing very well. When a currency is depreciating in a strong economy like HongKong, what will definitely happen? High inflation! In other words, as long as Bernanke is printing money as he is doing now, the HK$ will be further depreciating along with the US$, leading to more and more severe inflation in HongKong. You probably have heard that the HK housing market is super hot at the moment, a clear sign of a bubble unfolding. Actually when inflation picks up its pace, everything will go up. I think there is a good chance that the HK stock market will go up much higher than anyone can imagine. There is actually another factor favoring the HK stock market. As I said at the previous blog, I think the Chinese stock market may pick up its steam soon. If that's the case, it will further propel the HK market. This is almost like a double-dosed stimulus for the HK market. As you can see the chart below, the HK stock market (via ETF: EWH, the blue line) is generally doing much better than the Chinese stocks. If you believe this thesis, consider to buy EWH at its pullback.

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