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Thursday, July 7, 2011

Win win strategy for investing in gold stocks

Gold stocks are cheap, as I discussed a few days ago and I'm accumulating shares of them. However, there are hundreds of mining companies and you need to be careful about what to buy. Like any others companies, there are risks associated with them. The major ones include business model and environment, internal and external financial conditions, and management competence. There is another risk people often neglect: the headline risk. Regardless of truth or rumors, any negative news for a company, especially for those with less established business, may have a devastating or even fatal impact on the stock price of the company. Therefore, it is important to only buy good mining companies' stocks to minimize such risks. Personally I like a few gold companies such as Goldcorp (GG), Agnico-Eagle (AEM), Yamana Gold (AUY), and Seabridge Gold (SA). It is always better to buy a bulk of gold stocks instead of just focusing on one or two to spread out risks. Alternatively, I also like to buy GDX, an ETF for large precious metal miners. Given the large number of companies involved, it is virtually impossible to have a fatal impact on the fund price even if some of the companies go belly-up. In other words, the risks can be largely reduced with GDX as compared to individual companies. In addition to simply buying gold stocks, I have a win-win strategy with options: the best you may get is unlimited upside and the worst you may get is a cheaper stock. In-between you may get a capped profit margin. This is so-called Call Spread. Take the following real example I set up a few days ago:
I bought deep in the money GG 2012 Jan $40 call options (GG120121C00040000), for which I paid $8.95/share and at the same time I sold GG 2012 Jan $50 call options (GG120121C00050000), for which I got paid with $3.50/share. On that day, the GG price was about $48. Basically three scenarios may occur with this call option spread during the timeframe from now to Jan 2012:
1) If GG is trading between $49 to $53.50, I get a profit with a maximum of $4.5 per share. This is probably most people will be looking for, a capped profit margin.
2) If GG is trading at or above $53.50 and if I believe the upward trend will continue, I have an option of closing the call-selling positions (GG 2012 Jan $50 call options) and rolling over the long call positions (GG 2012 Jan $40 call options). Not many people may be thinking about this alternative but this will give one the opportunity for unlimited upside.
3) If GG is trading below $49, I at least can buy GG at a cheaper price at $35.5 ($49-$3.5) because I already got pay of $3.5/share from selling the call options. This is a 7% discount from the time I set up this call spread.

Is it a great strategy: with head you win; with tail you don't lose ?














































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