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Monday, February 21, 2011

Silver: Strong Tailwind Can Push It Much Higher

 If you followed my blog from the very beginning, you should know that I was waiting for a significant correction for precious metals, primarily gold and sliver. Indeed, both metals did have corrected early this year: the gold price dropped over 10% and more for sliver. Is this what I expected for? Far from it. I was hoping to see much more corrections so that I could have a much better opportunity to get more of them. Actually I'm still expecting there may be some more corrections in the near future but I just cannot be so sure now, especially for sliver. 
Unlike gold which has no industry utility, silver has been widely used in the industry as well as having the monetary value. Therefore silver is more sensitive to the economic status and is much more volatile in its price. Usually it appreciates much faster than gold but can plummet much heavily as well. However, right now silver's price is supported more by its fundamentals as the monetary value than its industrial utility.  As you may all know the world is facing huge headwind with many crises in brewing: dollar crisis with a significant inflation coming up; a irresponsible government that is printing money wildly; unrepentant Iran and North Korea; sovereign debt issues in Europe;  stubborn high unemployment and foreclosure rates........ All of these factors have propelled the gold price higher and higher in the past 10 years, nonstop!
Given that the gold price has been as high as over $1400, it is too expensive for many general people. Silver, which had been used as a real money till early 20th century, is so-called "poor man's gold" as it is much affordable at the price of around $30. With much more people participating in trading, no wonder why the appreciation pace is much stronger for the sliver price than the gold. Since the correction this year, gold is still struggling in its recovery but it is really impressive that silver has not only recovered fully but has even gong over its pre-correction high: it is now around $32 per oz. With such a strong price movement, silver may go as high as $50 in the next 12-18 months from the perspective of technical analysis.
So is it a good time to buy silver now? Yes and No. It all depends on your personal situation. If you have already bought some sliver (including silver-related funds and/or stocks) like me, you can enjoy the significant paper profits on your positions and you may want to wait to see if you can get a better chance to buy more.  However, if you have never bought any silver and are waiting for a much significant correction to get in, you may be disappointed to simply wait. While I'm still hopping for some material correction in precious metals, it may not come anymore before it reaches a much higher price. Although no one can predict with any confidence about the price of anything in the near future, I'm 100% sure that 5 years from now you will see a much higher price of gold and silver, probably more so for silver. I just don't want you to feel sorry by then to blame yourself of not putting some money in silver. If I had nothing now, I would buy some and add more if a significant correction does come. You can buy SIVR or SLV for silver investment. 

1 comment:

  1. Interesting topic. Hope to see more frequent postings from you.

    ReplyDelete