An Economic Boom is coming

 

 

Get Ready for an Economic Boom

There is no doubt, in my opinion, that manufacturing played a key role in the 2024 presidential election. The fact is that the U.S. manufacturing sector has been in a recession for more than two years.

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) recently announced that its manufacturing index declined to 46.5 in October, down from 47.2 in September. Any reading below 50 signals contraction. Also notable, 11 of the 16 industries surveyed reported contraction in October.

Clearly, the folks in the big manufacturing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are ready for a change.

And Trump 2.0 is anticipated to ignite that change with a manufacturing turnaround.

The Trump administration is expected to help the manufacturing sector expand via tariffs against unfair competition overseas, lower interest rates (with the Federal Reserve's help) and cheaper energy prices that give the U.S. a natural advantage compared to Europe, Japan and other competitors.

If these can be accomplished, then, in theory, the U.S. should experience a manufacturing boom.

Let me break down each of these categories to explain further…

Tariffs: The concerns over higher U.S. tariffs are unwarranted. The new Trump administration plans to level the playing field and treat our trading partners as they treat us. As an example, if the European Union (EU) slaps a 10% tariff on exported U.S. vehicles and the U.S. only imposes a 2.5% tariff, then the EU has the choice to lower tariffs on U.S. exports or the U.S. can raise tariffs to 10% on European imports.

Interest Rates: Treasury yields jumped in the wake of the Trump victory, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising as high as 4.478% on Wednesday. Yields are rising in anticipation of higher budget deficits and more robust economic growth. Remember, the Fed never fights market rates. So, I now expect that the Fed will "pause" after its 0.25% rate cut on Thursday, keeping the fed funds rate between 4.5% and 4.75% in the near term.

Energy: Trump 2.0 is anticipated to spur a domestic energy boom. This will help onshore manufacturing, as well as fuel the AI cloud computing boom. Remember, the utility grid needs to double over the next decade in order to meet demand for AI and cloud computing. Since the Trump administration is more fossil fuel-friendly, natural gas will likely be utilized to boost electricity output. That will ignite a boom in the natural gas industry, as well as help expand the U.S. utility grid.

 L Navellier

 

What can you expect....

 The landslide win by Trump with the powerful red wave across the America has created a very prosperous future for the country, which has been materially scourged (祸害) too much by the Leftists. Before I'm telling you what you can expect from the 2nd Trump's administration, here are just a few interesting quotes about this election:

 民主党2024年的大败，固然跟哈里斯这个人形象不佳、思想空洞、能力平庸，政绩又乏善可陈有直接关系。如果在拜登退选之后，民主党按正常初选程序通过竞争推出合法的党内候选人，估计今年大选会更加接近，川普不可能赢得这么轻松。 但更深层次的原因，则在于自奥巴马时代到拜登哈里斯政府，激进左派力推的 “觉醒运动”在美国狂飙突进，用DEI（多样化、平等和包容）、身份政治、性别错乱、纵容非法移民、放任零元购犯罪以及通货膨胀等等消融美国的立国之本，也严重毁坏了美国人的正常生活。雷歌

看到了这样一个比较来简单概括这次大选的双方较量，我觉得合理，引用一下 (Left side for GOP vs right for DEM)。

Common sense > Nonsense

Free speech > Censorship

Security > Lawlessness 

Real policy > Identity politics 

America first > Globalism 

Indie media > Legacy media 

Opportunity > Handouts 

Peace > WW3

 During the Biden years, the cost of energy rose 34%. Car insurance went up 56%. Hotels 45%. Peanut butter, 41%. The price of the basic Ford F-150 went from $30,000 in 2019 to $39,000 today — up 30%. The price of a new house rose from $380,000 in 2019 to more than $500,000 today — a 25% increase. Bill Bonner

If you go to Google and type “California vote 2024,” you can hover over the red counties. Trump destroyed Harris in those counties. (I’ll talk about the rural vote later.)

California, once a traditional Republican stronghold, may turn red again soon. Once it does, I suspect it won’t vote blue for a hundred years. -Sean Ring

 

Now the list of what is coming in the next few years:

1: Stocks Will Go Higher

With Republican control of the Senate (and possibly the House), Trump should be able to extend and make permanent the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Those tax cuts should stimulate economic confidence and power more consumer spending and economic investment – the sum of which will drive corporate earnings higher in 2025 and ‘26.

2: Oil Should Stay Flat, But Inflation Will Be a ‘Wild Card’ 

We believe that oil prices will likely flatline over the next 12 to 24 months, with growth in U.S. economic activity balanced by headwinds related to increased domestic oil production.

If prices hold around $70, inflation should remain between 2% to 3%. However, stronger U.S. growth in 2025-26 could present upside risks to inflation. We view inflation as a ‘wildcard’ risk.

3: Interest Rates Are Also a ‘Wild Card’ 

The path forward for interest rates and Treasury yields seems uncertain, as it will hinge largely upon inflation levels over the next few quarters which is uncertain.

If Trump’s pro-economic and protectionist policies do create more inflation, which seems likely, then interest rates will not decline as much as the market expects.

4: Big Upside in Stocks Will Hinge on Inflation, Interest Rates, and Valuation

While we think stocks have good upside prospects over the next 12 to 24 months, spectacular upside potential will depend on the path forward for inflation and interest rates.

5: Large-Cap Stocks Will Continue to Outperform

While small caps have outperformed in the day after Trump’s latest victory, history suggests that his tax cuts, tariffs, deregulation, and other economic policies are actually better for large caps.

6: Growth Stocks Will Remain the Winners

Trump’s policies should stimulate economic growth, which means they should be good for growth stocks.

7: ‘New-School’ Growth Stocks Should Be the Biggest Winners

While growth stocks have performed exceedingly well in this AI Bull Market, so-called ‘new school’ growth stocks – those of smaller, disruptive tech startups – have lagged. The best benchmark for these ‘new schoolers’ is Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK).

8: Clean Tech Stocks Will Crash; But Nuclear Stocks Could Surge

While the stock market surged higher today, not all stocks joined the party. Clean tech stocks, for example, broadly crashed, led by double-digit declines across many solar, wind, hydrogen, EV, and energy storage stocks.

9: Financial Stocks Should Be Outperformers

As deregulation and stronger economic growth unlocked enhanced profit growth for financial firms, financial stocks were huge winners during Trump’s first term. We think the next few years should be a repeat of that.

10: Real Estate Stocks Could Struggle

Like that of clean energy, real estate stocks largely failed to join today’s market rally, likely because of the interest rate ‘wildcard’ risk cited above. A Trump presidency could mean higher interest and mortgage rates.

L Lango