柯克的求仁得仁
by 世界之瞳
柯克温和地勇敢地与所有人对话，讨论一切争议话题，他说的未必都对。但思想是竞争出来的，可以得出靠谱的结论，这个高中学历者，比现在绝大多数教授/专家/学者都更具智慧。
他是时代的一束光。
这样优秀的卓越思想者，为啥被很多人痛恨？因为思想只能单向理解，智慧者可以理解愚蠢者的想法，会指出其局限，就像明白了微积分并不会仇视加减法，明白了相对论并不会仇视牛顿律，但愚蠢者永远无法理解智慧者的想法，把批评视为攻击。
这是一幅多么讽刺的场景，在一个低智社会中，人们无法容下品性高洁、智慧超凡的卓越者。就象托克韦尔所说，奴隶并不理解自由，它们只是痛恨主子。
柯克之死，是这个堕落的时代配不上他，老天爷把他收走了。柯克为追求真理而死，为传播常识而死，这就是他的求仁得仁。
柯克死了，那只是他的肉身，而智慧永在。柯克就像一颗麦子，落在地里，结出许多粒来。
千百年后，他依然会被铭记。
Next week will be especially sensitive to the market for a potentially violent volatility, since the Fed will likely start to cut interest rates. But whether the market will be happy or scared is totally up in the air at the moment. Here are the 3 scenarios posted by someone. I think the 3rd one is the most likely scenario we may see.
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Here are 3 different scenarios I could see playing out... FOMC Scenario 1: Powell Kisses Trump's Ring and Markets Move Up In this scenario, Powell does exactly what Trump has been wanting him to do. Powell delivers the news that the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates by 25 bps, bringing the target range to 4-4.25%. But Powell doesn't stop there... he takes it a step further. He goes as far as to say that this is the start of a well-calibrated easing cycle. Meaning multiple rate cuts are on the horizon. Trump is giddy with enthusiasm. He takes to Truth Social and announces "this is the start of America's next big economic boom." The market reacts to the upside. Sectors like tech, real estate, consumer, and utilities spike. Lower borrowing costs also light up growth expectations. Overall, it sends a signal that yes, this is the start of an easing cycle and not a recession panic. FOMC Scenario 2: Powell Tells Trump to "Shove it" and Markets Sell Off Instead of playing nice like the first scenario, Powell hits Trump with a haymaker of his own. He knows Trump is going to fire him anyway. So why not go out like a gangster and tell Trump "no rate cuts for you" before sailing off into the sunset? In this case, Powell says he's not cutting rates, citing that inflation isn't under control. Investors feel blindsided. All that talk of an almost certain rate cut and a soft landing is dashed. Because of this unexpected move, equities react to the downside. Tech and real estate stocks get hammered fast. Traders dump growth stocks, and long-term yields spike higher as recession fears kick in. Powell walks out of the burning building without bothering to look at the destruction. |
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FOMC Scenario 3: Powell Walks the Tightrope and Markets Fluctuate In this last scenario, Powell doesn't cave to Trump or get overly hawkish. Instead, he meets Trump halfway. He announces rate cuts of 25 bps, agreeing that the recent low jobs data is a viable reason for the decision. But he stops short of saying "this is the start of an easing cycle with multiple rate cuts." Powell's tone will be key here. How cautious does he sound? Is he being too ambiguous? If he is, stocks might cheer the move in the short run. But growth-heavy sectors like tech and real estate could see wild swings over the long term amid the uncertainty. Bryan Bottarelli |
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