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Friday, September 26, 2025

No recession!

 

  

 While the overall market is quite overheated at the moment, subject to a quick correction in the near term, at the macroeconomic level, don't be fooled by the latest headline news that we are heading to a recession. 

  

  As a matter of fact, as we head into 2026, Wall Street expects corporate earnings to increase sharply, which can only occur if the economy re-accelerates. Yesterday's strong GDP reading also proved this!

  

All the major economic forces are converging to push a rather robust economic cycle under the Trump administration, which should be great for the market as well in the long run. We are going to have a downward trend of the interest rate, along with a stable inflation, very friendly de-regulation and very pro-economic polices coming together. Indeed, getting ready for a bright golden era in the next few years.   

Saturday, September 13, 2025

Musk’s Master Plan, Part Whatever: Still Mars

 Share Musk's master plan, the boldest plan of humanity up to now. I'm proud of having my skin in four of his five ventures. I'm closely following his plan and hope someday in my life we may have a chance to witness some of his master plan being materialized!!  

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Over a year ago, we connected some dots that some others had noticed too…

Musk’s ventures—cars, tunnels, satellites, brain chips—aren’t one man’s attempt to do everything. 

Instead, they’re one guy’s attempt to do just one thing.

Once you see it, it becomes obvious. It’s not like he’s been quiet about it, either. It’s just that it sounds too big for most people to take seriously.

So we nod when he says “multiplanetary,” then go back to scrolling.

But he wasn’t joking.

He’s laying the pipes for a second civilization.

Allow me to explain. And show how 2025 hasn’t broken the pattern—it’s only extended it, proof that Musk’s projects keep compounding into one massive, unstoppable trend.

One Goal. Six Pipes.

The story used to be that Elon Musk was running five different companies.

Cars. Rockets. X Corp. Brain chips. Tunnels.

Now he’s added an AI lab with the biggest GPU cluster on Earth. And, at the same time, the old story is fading.

Today, if you look at 2025 in the right light, you can see it’s not five or six companies.

Musk has one company. One vertical stack.

And the product isn’t a car or a chatbot.

It’s Mars.

Starship: The Real Product Demo

In May, Musk casually announced he’d try to send five unmanned Starships to Mars in 2026. No people.

He called it a “50/50 chance.”

And no, this isn’t just talk.

At Cape Canaveral’s LC-39A, SpaceX has been pouring the flame trench, plumbing the tank farm, and wiring up the Starship pad—they could be ready as soon as late 2025 (though mid-2026 is more realistic).

Meanwhile, the FAA signed off on an environmental review that allows up to 25 Starship launches per year from South Texas, clearing the way for a much faster cadence (subject to licensing).

Humans haven’t landed on another world since Apollo 17 in 1972. If Musk hits his 2026 window, the first footprints back won’t be human—they’ll be robotic. 

Tesla: Infest Space With Robots

When Musk lands Starship on Mars, guess who steps out first? Not human astronauts. But not nobody.

Optimus.

Musk says Optimus will be 80% of Tesla’s value.

Eight-zero.

And a good chunk of that value will come from his newest company, xAI.

You know, the one that built the world’s largest supercomputer in a Memphis warehouse—122 days from zero to “Colossus.” Fully stocked with over two hundred thousand Nvidia GPUs.

For reference, OpenAI’s GPT-4 training run was rumored to use ~25,000 GPUs. Colossus has 8 times that. It’s enough horsepower to train multiple frontier models at once, or retrain a GPT-class model in weeks instead of months.

And the AI it produced—Grok 4—is, by many metrics (according to standard benchmarks), “the smartest AI in the world.”

That same AI is now running inside Tesla’s robots and even powering Starlink’s customer service. That same AI will be helping to run the Mars mission.

And speaking of Starlink…

Starlink: Mars Already Filed

By August, SpaceX had 8,000 satellites in orbit. Six million people are paying for Starlink on Earth.

But buried in a 2024 filing was the master plan: a Marslink constellation. A handful of satellites orbiting Mars, shooting data back to Earth.

And maybe from a Neuralink…

Neuralink put brain chips in five humans this year. They can shop online and move cursors just by thinking.

On Earth, it’s framed as a disability aid. On Mars, it’s something else: teleoperation.

Imagine teleoperating an Optimus from the safety of a dome while it builds a solar farm outside in minus-80 degrees.

That’s not sci-fi anymore. That’s a feature in beta.

The Boring Company: Practice Tunneling Mars

Radiation is brutal on Mars.

The short-term solution? Live underground.

Conveniently, his tunneling company is now showing autonomous tunnel-boring machines that don’t need humans inside.

This year, they signed deals to dig in Dubai and Nashville. Every mile of tunnel dug on Earth is practice for carving out habitats under Martian soil.

Connecting the Dots

So let’s add it up.

  • Rockets the size of buildings.
  • Robots that walk and talk.
  • AI brains running on the largest computer ever built.
  • An internet already planned for Mars orbit.
  • Brain chips linking humans to machines.
  • Tunnels to live in underground.

It looks scattered. But it’s not.

It’s a stack. A single machine with many moving parts.

And the output isn’t an app or a car or even a rocket. The output is a city on Mars.

In 2025, Musk updated the plan without saying it out loud.

Every move—from the Memphis supercomputer to Optimus demos to FAA launch permits—shows the mission is still Mars.

The craziest part?

It all seems to be going according to plan.

 Chris Campbell

Where will Powell stand next week?

 

柯克的求仁得仁

by 世界之瞳 

  柯克温和地勇敢地与所有人对话,讨论一切争议话题,他说的未必都对。但思想是竞争出来的,可以得出靠谱的结论,这个高中学历者,比现在绝大多数教授/专家/学者都更具智慧。

  他是时代的一束光。

  这样优秀的卓越思想者,为啥被很多人痛恨?因为思想只能单向理解,智慧者可以理解愚蠢者的想法,会指出其局限,就像明白了微积分并不会仇视加减法,明白了相对论并不会仇视牛顿律,但愚蠢者永远无法理解智慧者的想法,把批评视为攻击。

  这是一幅多么讽刺的场景,在一个低智社会中,人们无法容下品性高洁、智慧超凡的卓越者。就象托克韦尔所说,奴隶并不理解自由,它们只是痛恨主子。

  柯克之死,是这个堕落的时代配不上他,老天爷把他收走了。柯克为追求真理而死,为传播常识而死,这就是他的求仁得仁。

  柯克死了,那只是他的肉身,而智慧永在。柯克就像一颗麦子,落在地里,结出许多粒来。

  千百年后,他依然会被铭记。

  

Next week will be especially sensitive to the market for a potentially violent volatility, since the Fed will likely start to cut interest rates. But whether the market will be happy or scared is totally up in the air at the moment. Here are the 3 scenarios posted by someone. I think the 3rd one is the most likely scenario we may see. 

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Here are 3 different scenarios I could see playing out...

FOMC Scenario 1: Powell Kisses Trump's Ring and Markets Move Up

In this scenario, Powell does exactly what Trump has been wanting him to do.

Powell delivers the news that the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates by 25 bps, bringing the target range to 4-4.25%.

But Powell doesn't stop there... he takes it a step further.

He goes as far as to say that this is the start of a well-calibrated easing cycle. Meaning multiple rate cuts are on the horizon.

Trump is giddy with enthusiasm. He takes to Truth Social and announces "this is the start of America's next big economic boom."

The market reacts to the upside.

Sectors like tech, real estate, consumer, and utilities spike.

Lower borrowing costs also light up growth expectations.

Overall, it sends a signal that yes, this is the start of an easing cycle and not a recession panic.

FOMC Scenario 2: Powell Tells Trump to "Shove it" and Markets Sell Off

Instead of playing nice like the first scenario, Powell hits Trump with a haymaker of his own.

He knows Trump is going to fire him anyway. So why not go out like a gangster and tell Trump "no rate cuts for you" before sailing off into the sunset?

In this case, Powell says he's not cutting rates, citing that inflation isn't under control.

Investors feel blindsided. All that talk of an almost certain rate cut and a soft landing is dashed.

Because of this unexpected move, equities react to the downside.

Tech and real estate stocks get hammered fast. Traders dump growth stocks, and long-term yields spike higher as recession fears kick in.

Powell walks out of the burning building without bothering to look at the destruction.

FOMC Scenario 3: Powell Walks the Tightrope and Markets Fluctuate

In this last scenario, Powell doesn't cave to Trump or get overly hawkish. Instead, he meets Trump halfway.

He announces rate cuts of 25 bps, agreeing that the recent low jobs data is a viable reason for the decision. But he stops short of saying "this is the start of an easing cycle with multiple rate cuts."

Powell's tone will be key here.

How cautious does he sound? Is he being too ambiguous?

If he is, stocks might cheer the move in the short run. But growth-heavy sectors like tech and real estate could see wild swings over the long term amid the uncertainty.

 Bryan Bottarelli